Based on the 2024 H1B numbers, that translates to roughly 35,000 NEW H1B applications for 2025 Q4 that will be affected.

Over the next year the expected impact is 85,000 jobs (the cap of 65,000 plus 20K advanced degree holders) and $8.5B in salaries to US workers, assuming that no company is willing to pay the fee, that no role is outsourced, and that the job vacancy is actually filled by a US worker.

I’m not sure what renewals look like if they are also affected by the $100K fee or included in the 85K cap.

Edited maths for the 85K cap.