I think with orange pedo at the helm nothing is predictable at this point. Could be that he murders mamdani or that he gets jfked to hide the burst of the bubble. There are so many ways this could go.
Only one thing i’m certain of: ukraine is going down. Maybe venezuela war, maybe not. Maybe anexation of palestine, etc. So many avenues.
I’d argue more broadly we can be sure that the west has now entered terminal decline, and we’re going to see a geopolitical realignment towards China going forward. There might be dying gasps like an attack on Venezuela or Iran, but none of that is going to arrest the decline or reverse it.
Yeah, that makes sense. I do agree that decline is getting more overt and i dont think it is reversable either but I dont know if it is as fast as it looks or if it will be a perpetual slow trainwreck like in britain where they starve their population, sabre rattle towards ireland and otherwise keep still as much as possible. For germany this would mean long lines at food banks, strong identification with israel and more police presence on the streets, maybe even outlawing of protests or curfew as with covid. I can see that happening. Germany always was a little more authoritarian than the rest while pointing fingers at erdogan.
Personally, I expect that things will keep getting worse in the west for a while yet. And material conditions for the vassals will be worse than in the core because the US will be sucking the life out of Europe, Japan, and occupied Korea to prop up its own economy. We’re already seeing this happening with the “deals” that Trump rammed through. That all might lead to revolutionary conditions, but seems like that’s quite far away at this point. Naked fascism seems like the most likely next stage to me.
I’d say austerity for at least a couple years with massive spending towards the us and military. I dont think we will see fascism again as it was back then. Its probably more a toned down, stupider version like the us.
It’s hard to say. I don’t think anybody expected 1930s style fascism before it got into motion either. These things can take on a life of their own very quickly. What we’ll see is that repression is going to increase in response to public discontent. We already see this happening both in the US and the EU. We’re seeing militarization of police, mass surveillance, bans on political speech, widespread censorship, and so on. All of that will continue to be cranked up, and that’s how you end up with full blown fascism in the end. The US is just at the start of the road, it’s going to keep getting worse with each and every year. Europe is sure to follow.
Thats an interesting yet harrowing perspective. It feels like the US is already becoming kind of unruly as the people start protesting en masse.
Germany didnt protest hitler. They loved him. There are many interviews from before and after where people were frenetically in love with him. The us back then had its own dictator with near totalitarian power and nobody was against that either. They even had concentration camps with japanese people in it.
I think its very different know. We cant say people are terribly resolute but the mere flow of information is manyfold and the reaction albeit being disorganized or misguided is there.
Maybe some history buffs can fill in the blanks here?
I’m skeptical that access to information plays that big of a role in practice. What we see is that people just form online bubbles along with other people who have similar beliefs. Take the whole flat earth movement as an example, clearly the abundance of information to the contrary isn’t preventing people from believing nonsense. And that’s one of the more extremely absurd beliefs, it’s much easier for people to believe things like immigrants stealing jobs, or that entrepreneurs are needed for innovation, and so on. Meanwhile, MAGA is basically a cult around Trump, his support hasn’t really fallen amongst them even despite the economic damage his trade war is doing.
It’d be interesting to see more perspectives on this from people who know history better, but I see a lot of the same mechanics playing out today as at the start of the 20th century.
Flat earthers are very few which not really escape but decide not to believe in science while palestine for example is something that would have and has gone differently just because the information wasnt as abundand. Now we have thousands upon thousands of websites, profiles, people, messages, etc that depict the genocide in 4k.
So our core audience for flat earth is enormously different from the palestine issue.
This means that on average people will definitely and massively benefit from the information abundance but of course some will - same as flat earthers - not be convinced, no matter the evidence.
But we cant discount the rule for the exception. It took me half an hour by the way to find the name of the fallacy that seems to be coming up rn. “Exception fallacy” is discounting a rule “abundance of information makes a huge difference to past situations of this nature” for its exceptions “the flat earthers still dont listen.”
I think with orange pedo at the helm nothing is predictable at this point. Could be that he murders mamdani or that he gets jfked to hide the burst of the bubble. There are so many ways this could go.
Only one thing i’m certain of: ukraine is going down. Maybe venezuela war, maybe not. Maybe anexation of palestine, etc. So many avenues.
I’d argue more broadly we can be sure that the west has now entered terminal decline, and we’re going to see a geopolitical realignment towards China going forward. There might be dying gasps like an attack on Venezuela or Iran, but none of that is going to arrest the decline or reverse it.
Yeah, that makes sense. I do agree that decline is getting more overt and i dont think it is reversable either but I dont know if it is as fast as it looks or if it will be a perpetual slow trainwreck like in britain where they starve their population, sabre rattle towards ireland and otherwise keep still as much as possible. For germany this would mean long lines at food banks, strong identification with israel and more police presence on the streets, maybe even outlawing of protests or curfew as with covid. I can see that happening. Germany always was a little more authoritarian than the rest while pointing fingers at erdogan.
Personally, I expect that things will keep getting worse in the west for a while yet. And material conditions for the vassals will be worse than in the core because the US will be sucking the life out of Europe, Japan, and occupied Korea to prop up its own economy. We’re already seeing this happening with the “deals” that Trump rammed through. That all might lead to revolutionary conditions, but seems like that’s quite far away at this point. Naked fascism seems like the most likely next stage to me.
I’d say austerity for at least a couple years with massive spending towards the us and military. I dont think we will see fascism again as it was back then. Its probably more a toned down, stupider version like the us.
It’s hard to say. I don’t think anybody expected 1930s style fascism before it got into motion either. These things can take on a life of their own very quickly. What we’ll see is that repression is going to increase in response to public discontent. We already see this happening both in the US and the EU. We’re seeing militarization of police, mass surveillance, bans on political speech, widespread censorship, and so on. All of that will continue to be cranked up, and that’s how you end up with full blown fascism in the end. The US is just at the start of the road, it’s going to keep getting worse with each and every year. Europe is sure to follow.
Thats an interesting yet harrowing perspective. It feels like the US is already becoming kind of unruly as the people start protesting en masse.
Germany didnt protest hitler. They loved him. There are many interviews from before and after where people were frenetically in love with him. The us back then had its own dictator with near totalitarian power and nobody was against that either. They even had concentration camps with japanese people in it.
I think its very different know. We cant say people are terribly resolute but the mere flow of information is manyfold and the reaction albeit being disorganized or misguided is there.
Maybe some history buffs can fill in the blanks here?
I’m skeptical that access to information plays that big of a role in practice. What we see is that people just form online bubbles along with other people who have similar beliefs. Take the whole flat earth movement as an example, clearly the abundance of information to the contrary isn’t preventing people from believing nonsense. And that’s one of the more extremely absurd beliefs, it’s much easier for people to believe things like immigrants stealing jobs, or that entrepreneurs are needed for innovation, and so on. Meanwhile, MAGA is basically a cult around Trump, his support hasn’t really fallen amongst them even despite the economic damage his trade war is doing.
It’d be interesting to see more perspectives on this from people who know history better, but I see a lot of the same mechanics playing out today as at the start of the 20th century.
I think there is a fallacy at play here.
Flat earthers are very few which not really escape but decide not to believe in science while palestine for example is something that would have and has gone differently just because the information wasnt as abundand. Now we have thousands upon thousands of websites, profiles, people, messages, etc that depict the genocide in 4k.
So our core audience for flat earth is enormously different from the palestine issue.
This means that on average people will definitely and massively benefit from the information abundance but of course some will - same as flat earthers - not be convinced, no matter the evidence.
But we cant discount the rule for the exception. It took me half an hour by the way to find the name of the fallacy that seems to be coming up rn. “Exception fallacy” is discounting a rule “abundance of information makes a huge difference to past situations of this nature” for its exceptions “the flat earthers still dont listen.”