Looks like The White House is just winging it, and there’s no plan whatsoever:
A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told CNN. But White House and Pentagon officials insisted that the assessment — particularly the longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered.
seeing the amount of disruption after not even 3 weeks into it being closed, it being closed for 6 months may actually be an existential threat to the US.
Not just the US, all of the west would be fucked at that point. Meanwhile, the demand for cheap goods from China will explode because nobody is going to be able to afford anything else. It might also get countries to actually start doing a serious transition to renewables out of sheer necessity, which will also mean buying Chinese solar panels.
What i’m more concerned about is the iranian bourgeoisie getting too drunk in their own hubris.
The iranian parliament was considering imposing basically a tollbooth for the straight, obviously to extract revenue out of it.
China has a key role in advising the iranians to not push things over the cliff
I am saying this of the top of my head and i am aware this is not a thorough material analysis
Not only they definitely should set a toll on the strait, it looks like they already did. And considering how they’ve been acting so far they’ll likely ask more from the west, if they even allow all of them through…
close it forever
“The US furiously seeks to avert…” They could always pack it up and go home; that would avert a months long closure. Easy-peasy.
At that point they lose foothold on the region entirely, and obviously they’re not going to do that willingly.
I think the US has already lost their foothold, they just don’t know it yet. The Gulf states were exchanging trillions of dollars in US investments for a security guarantee, and it turns out the US can’t protect a damn thing.
For sure, but it does seem like the Gulf states are still hedging right now. Iran has to decisively defeat the US and force them into retreat the way Afghanistan did. At that point, the neighbouring states will have no option but to work with Iran going forward.
This is Putin level of genius.
Edit: /s
i don’t think this and Russia’s war in Ukraine have very many similarities.
I don’t think the sarcasm came across very well. Both Putin and Trump rushed in thinking they’ll have control quickly but they both fucked up.
You are completely wrong regarding Ukraine. Russia clearly had multiple plans in place:
Plan A: Push into Donbas and do another spearhead towards Kiev to force negotiations. This almost worked, if not for british pedophile Boris Johnson going to Kiev to tell Zelensky that the west would never accept a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia and keep arming Ukraine.
Plan B: Attrition. Take down Ukrainian strongholds in Donbas bit by bit and destroy their army. This is the current one.
Russia was prepared for things to get ugly, the US isn’t.
Thanks for the detailed reply. I had been called stupid on other replies, I appreciate your time on explaing why my comment got so much hate.
And yes, as a Brit, I fucking hate that slimy Boris (which isn’t even his first name)
I would like to add that Russia transitioned to drone warfare after partnership with Iran. At first they were at disadvantage against Ukraine in this regard, but now this disadvantage is gone.
True but that was just advancing warfare technology, not a change of the overall plan.
The sarcasm came across but considering the two situations are nothing like you’re describing, it ended up looking stupid
Wat?
