• 2 Posts
  • 38 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 11th, 2023

help-circle



  • You’re mixing up the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation.

    Assuming you meant the Drake equation, more than half of the variables we have absolutely no statistical basis to decide on a fraction. Obviously they are non-zero, but they could be extremely improbable. We only have one example of intelligent life developing radio communications. Any estimate of a statistical likelihood of that using Earth as an example is meaningless without other examples.

    Some pessimistic estimates give solutions as small 9.1 x 10^-13 which indicates we would be alone.

    The Fermi Paradox riffs on the optimistic answer to Drake’s Equation. If other intelligent life is a certainty, why haven’t we found them yet?



  • I finally overhauled my home server. I built a 12TB storage and media server using a few parts from the old server but am running it on Linux using docker rather than my old gaming PC’s windows 7 install. Should be much better for security and easier to upgrade or move.

    Paid for PlexPass finally since hardware transcoding is locked behind the paywall.

    Dropped Netflix after over a decade of using it regularly because the prices went up and I had been using it less.

    Have used ChatGPT for help planning trips and developing goals and plans at home. I was restricted from using it or anything like it at work so I haven’t been able to properly use it to my advantage much.

    Finally upgraded my router to WiFi 6 and my Internet bandwidth to gigabit from 250 mbps. It’s refreshing! Probably the best decision I made in 2023.

    Dropped reddit (to include blocking the domain on my pihole). I still waste time but less of it is on social media.


  • Inspection intervals are based on expectation of damage over time, not to verify if the installation procedure was properly followed.

    Design requirements for airplane parts that experience rotation or are part of control systems are regulated to have locking features to prevent loose bolts from happening. If the initial installation was done improperly it could be a failure in quality control at Boeing. Or if they were installed properly but weren’t designed with sufficient locking mechanisms it may be an improper design. Either way this could turn into an Airworthiness Directive which is when the FAA steps in to ensure safety.












  • You bring up some interesting points about content. I agree that a large majority of media today is so focused on quantity and hype that meaningful information is lost in the noise. I think there is a common thread there with the Silicon Valley style VC hype around whatever current thing is hot at the moment, but I felt you didn’t quite support that much in your post.

    Time will really tell for disruptive technologies we keep seeing in headlines. But I think we won’t find out until much farther in the future than people expect. Bitcoin is still around after 15 years, but didn’t prove to be as revolutionary as expected and has massive externalities that make it unappealing. It found it’s niche though.

    It takes a long time to find the unintended long term consequences that makes or breaks these high concept tech ideas. By then the gravy train is over and the next big thing is in. Some of these are grifts where someone smart enough to see the problems can avoid it but others like Air BnB or Uber don’t get sorted out until long after they screw up the market.

    A lot of this is due to the push to get a user base first then make it profitable later where the profit comes from scale and efficiency. In the meantime they sell a product that seems too good to be true because it isn’t currently sustainable.