I’m reminded of a video I saw of a woman talking about her dating prospects using M&Ms. She poured a bunch on the table as a metaphor for her dating pool, and slid away M&Ms as she ruled the people they represent out. “8 million people in the city. But half are women slides half of the M&Ms away of the remaining 4 million men, 20% are under 25, slides more M&Ms away” until she got to a point where she had one candy left, and then she shattered it with a meat tenderizer and continued sliding pieces of it away.

You can do that for potential adoptees of Linux, because there are a bunch of filters in series you have to pass through before successfully adopting Linux.

8 billion people on the planet.

Subtract the Sentinelese and Amish and North Koreans and everyone else who just outright doesn’t have access to computers. Nothing we can really do about them and in some cases it would be unethical to try.

Now subtract out the people who only use a mobile device like a cell phone or tablet, which are locked to their OSes. Android or iOS is as much a part of the hardware as a microwave oven’s firmware is to them. Linux on mobile devices (excluding Android) is in a severely rough state, there’s basically no hardware and software combo that is ready for daily driving.

Now subtract out the people who do use a PC or other device, that won’t ever install an operating system on a computer themselves. You’ll get some of these folks by selling computers with Linux installed in stores and such, though I think you’ll have to address a few other points later. I think SteamOS is demonstrating this.

Now subtract the people who might install Linux themselves, say PC builders who would have to install an OS anyway, but bounce off the process of choosing a distro and then installing. The big distributors like Canonical and Fedora tend toward marketing wankshit instead of human language. You can’t tell their goddamn websites “I just want the normal end-user desktop version with KDE please.” Does “Core” mean our main, central product, or the IoT embedded system version? You kind of have to know Fedora calls their Gnome edition “Workstation” and if you want “normal Fedora but with KDE” that’s a “Spin.” Then you get the Trendy Fork Of The Month, things like Bazzite and Nobara that pretty much are Fedora or Ubuntu with a theme applied, maybe some actual features in the OS, but often just a redone onboarding process, like I think it’s Bazzite that offers a configurator on their website that lets you pick your desktop and such. Defuckulating the onboarding process of major distros might allow us to do away with the Trendy Fork Of The Month.

Now subtract the folks who get a Linux machine up and running and then bounce off of the unfamiliar UI. I’m pretty sure this is Gnome’s fault more often than not, Gnome is deliberately hostile to both distro maintainers and end users to the point there are now four DEs that are “We can’t do this anymore” forks of Gnome: MATE, Cinnamon, Unity and Cosmic. You’d probably see more people stick with Linux if it was less easy to stumble dick first into Gnome.

Now subtract the people who got this far and then said “My CAD/art/music/office/finance/whatever software doesn’t run on this.” and had to switch back. In a lot of cases, software like that exists in the FOSS ecosystem but it’s significantly inferior, like FreeCAD or GIMP. These are often kept in a deliberately shitty state because some opinionated programmer likes how the code they wrote in 2004 looks in their IDE, so open software continues to be unadoptable and people continue to pay subscriptions to the Captain Planet villains in charge of Microsoft, Apple, Google and Adobe.