Poly market is a gambling platform where people bet on things that will happen in real life.
Bob made a bet that Iran would bomb Israel on some specific date.
Unrelated and unaware about Bob, Fabian is a journalist. Fabian wrote an accurate article describing an attack where Iran bombed Israel.
Bob’s bet was wrong. He’s about to loose a lot of money. So Bob threatens to kill Fabian. Bob tells Fabien he must change his story, so Bob doesn’t loose money.
What’s even more fucked up is that there’s nothing preventing DoD employees from also betting on this stuff while simultaneously being the ones deciding the who, what, when, where, and why of bombing another country.
I don’t think they can actually change the name without jumping through tons of hoops, and we know they aren’t doing that. So its still DoD they just call it DoW.
~~If the bet is successful, Polymarket pays out — just like how more conventional betting works ~~ (Edit: this is incorrect — it uses matched betting. See the comment below mine for more detail)
In terms of who determines which way a bet goes, it seems like this is also Polymarket, and that they rely on journalistic coverage and official announcements.
This journalist reported that one of the missiles landed and exploded, and it appears that this was used to deny paying out to the people who places at bet that no missiles would land that day. The gamblers tried to coerce the journalist to change their report to say that all of the missiles were intercepted, and that the thing that actually landed and exploded was just a missile fragment from the intercepted missile. I have no idea whether this would’ve actually changed the outcome of the bet from Polymarket’s perspective, but the gamblers certainly seemed to think so.
It highlights the absurdity of betting on events like this
Actually Polymarket never pays out. Every bet is matched with someone holding the opposite bet (and prices to make a bet shift accordingly to market demand for each side). Polymarket just rakes in fees, but they never lose money regardless of how a bet goes.
Shayne Coplan is the billionaire manchild who owns polymarket along with a couple other billionaire cofounders like Peter Thiel. It’s just like bookies with details decided before the bet is made, and the house/market/organized crime organization take a cut for guaranteeing the bet pays out.
For an entertaining and sufficient way to understand what’s going on, I highly recommend watching South Park S27E5 titled Conflict of Interest
Aired September 24, 2025 , it explains how poly market works, specifically in the context of Israel’s genocide and how it relates (and doesn’t relate) to US Jews.
Polymarket is a place to put bets on anything: if the groundhog sees his shadow, if a hurricane makes landfall, if the US bombs Iran. You know just fun betting. Except now people put down huge sums, and just prior to the Iran war, insiders were putting down MILLIONS on the war starting that day. It makes it immediately obvious there are dangerous conflicts of interest.
Everything is a yes or no question.
You can buy a yes or no option for anywhere between 1 cent and 99 cents. When an outcome is finalized, the side that had the correct prediction has their option goto $1.00
So as an outcome becomes more likely, its price moves towards $1.
So when you buy a contact for less than 50 cents you are buying the underdog, when it’s over 50 cents you are backing the favorite.
Let’s say that the contact is if you will eat a sandwich today. I’m guessing most people will think you will eat a sandwich so the “yes” contract will probably cost 99 cents or so.
If someone pays 99 cents for that option and you do eat a sandwich they get back $1 total, or 1 cent profit.
Well what if I’m your doctor and you come in to me with food poisoning. Now I have inside information and I can buy an option that you will not eat a sandwich today for 1 cent and if you don’t eat a sandwich I’ll get back $1 for every penny I put towards the “no” outcome.
So the big issue is people having inside information and using these prediction markets to illegally make money and it’s really hard to track.
In the article, it appears that only 1 missile landed and that the only source for it was this author’s article. So the people that bet on the “no” outcome are trying to get him to change his article so the outcome is contested and they can maybe win their bet. They are using the position that what landed was a piece of a missile that was intercepted.
There is now a huge financial motivation to report news that isn’t factual.
The thing I struggle with, is how do they manage ensuring thier is a bet on the other side to balance. I mean someone has to make the first bet. I assume you can offer, but if no one or not enough people take the offer then your offer doesn’t conver to a real bet or something? And if that is how it works, say someone puts up money on a significant underdog. There would likely be a lot of interest, probably more than needed to balance the bet. How do they decide who gets the action and who doesn’t?
The two sides don’t have to be balanced. That’s what “betting odds” are. If there are 3 “yes” bets and 1 “no” bet then there are 3:1 odds. If the “no” wins they will get much more money because they don’t have to split it with anyone.
If betting on Polymarket, you would actually have to stump up that money first, and the other person would have to do the same with whatever bid they wanted to use. Then, in order to get any kind of reasonable payback, you would need thousands of other people to make a bet for or against, using their own money.
The payout isn’t on someone making a bet on themselves, no-one else would bet for or against that as the stakes are so small. The payout is on large-scale events that are - ostensibly - out of the control of the bettor or bettee.
Polymarket is no different than betting on the outcomes of horse races or sports games, it just opens up the thing being betted on to anything and everything. People will still bet. The key is how “un-rigged” it appears to be.
Can somebody eli5 me this? I am not sure I am getting it
Poly market is a gambling platform where people bet on things that will happen in real life.
Bob made a bet that Iran would bomb Israel on some specific date.
Unrelated and unaware about Bob, Fabian is a journalist. Fabian wrote an accurate article describing an attack where Iran bombed Israel.
Bob’s bet was wrong. He’s about to loose a lot of money. So Bob threatens to kill Fabian. Bob tells Fabien he must change his story, so Bob doesn’t loose money.
First, that is deeply fucked up. Second, who pays or determine which way a bet went?
Do you see how many bets may end up in ambiguous states where it is interpretable which side won?
What’s even more fucked up is that there’s nothing preventing DoD employees from also betting on this stuff while simultaneously being the ones deciding the who, what, when, where, and why of bombing another country.
isn’t it DoW, now?
DoW… DOW… coincidence? I think not
Nah, I refuse to normalize the rhetoric of the treasonous Nazis leading the country.
I don’t think they can actually change the name without jumping through tons of hoops, and we know they aren’t doing that. So its still DoD they just call it DoW.
~~If the bet is successful, Polymarket pays out — just like how more conventional betting works ~~ (Edit: this is incorrect — it uses matched betting. See the comment below mine for more detail)
In terms of who determines which way a bet goes, it seems like this is also Polymarket, and that they rely on journalistic coverage and official announcements.
This journalist reported that one of the missiles landed and exploded, and it appears that this was used to deny paying out to the people who places at bet that no missiles would land that day. The gamblers tried to coerce the journalist to change their report to say that all of the missiles were intercepted, and that the thing that actually landed and exploded was just a missile fragment from the intercepted missile. I have no idea whether this would’ve actually changed the outcome of the bet from Polymarket’s perspective, but the gamblers certainly seemed to think so.
It highlights the absurdity of betting on events like this
Actually Polymarket never pays out. Every bet is matched with someone holding the opposite bet (and prices to make a bet shift accordingly to market demand for each side). Polymarket just rakes in fees, but they never lose money regardless of how a bet goes.
Oh, I didn’t know that. Thanks for correcting me
Shayne Coplan is the billionaire manchild who owns polymarket along with a couple other billionaire cofounders like Peter Thiel. It’s just like bookies with details decided before the bet is made, and the house/market/organized crime organization take a cut for guaranteeing the bet pays out.
For an entertaining and sufficient way to understand what’s going on, I highly recommend watching South Park S27E5 titled Conflict of Interest
Aired September 24, 2025 , it explains how poly market works, specifically in the context of Israel’s genocide and how it relates (and doesn’t relate) to US Jews.
I watched it, I kind of got it, but now, after these explanations (thanks, people 😁) it is much more funny.
Polymarket is a place to put bets on anything: if the groundhog sees his shadow, if a hurricane makes landfall, if the US bombs Iran. You know just fun betting. Except now people put down huge sums, and just prior to the Iran war, insiders were putting down MILLIONS on the war starting that day. It makes it immediately obvious there are dangerous conflicts of interest.
But, who pays? I could bet you a million I will eat a sandwish today
Someone has to take the other side of the bet.
Everything is a yes or no question. You can buy a yes or no option for anywhere between 1 cent and 99 cents. When an outcome is finalized, the side that had the correct prediction has their option goto $1.00
So as an outcome becomes more likely, its price moves towards $1.
So when you buy a contact for less than 50 cents you are buying the underdog, when it’s over 50 cents you are backing the favorite.
Let’s say that the contact is if you will eat a sandwich today. I’m guessing most people will think you will eat a sandwich so the “yes” contract will probably cost 99 cents or so.
If someone pays 99 cents for that option and you do eat a sandwich they get back $1 total, or 1 cent profit.
Well what if I’m your doctor and you come in to me with food poisoning. Now I have inside information and I can buy an option that you will not eat a sandwich today for 1 cent and if you don’t eat a sandwich I’ll get back $1 for every penny I put towards the “no” outcome.
So the big issue is people having inside information and using these prediction markets to illegally make money and it’s really hard to track.
In the article, it appears that only 1 missile landed and that the only source for it was this author’s article. So the people that bet on the “no” outcome are trying to get him to change his article so the outcome is contested and they can maybe win their bet. They are using the position that what landed was a piece of a missile that was intercepted.
There is now a huge financial motivation to report news that isn’t factual.
Thanks for the explanation :)
So now not only the editor can have financial incentives to force journalists to push an agenda, but literally anybody!
The thing I struggle with, is how do they manage ensuring thier is a bet on the other side to balance. I mean someone has to make the first bet. I assume you can offer, but if no one or not enough people take the offer then your offer doesn’t conver to a real bet or something? And if that is how it works, say someone puts up money on a significant underdog. There would likely be a lot of interest, probably more than needed to balance the bet. How do they decide who gets the action and who doesn’t?
The two sides don’t have to be balanced. That’s what “betting odds” are. If there are 3 “yes” bets and 1 “no” bet then there are 3:1 odds. If the “no” wins they will get much more money because they don’t have to split it with anyone.
If betting on Polymarket, you would actually have to stump up that money first, and the other person would have to do the same with whatever bid they wanted to use. Then, in order to get any kind of reasonable payback, you would need thousands of other people to make a bet for or against, using their own money.
The payout isn’t on someone making a bet on themselves, no-one else would bet for or against that as the stakes are so small. The payout is on large-scale events that are - ostensibly - out of the control of the bettor or bettee.
Polymarket is no different than betting on the outcomes of horse races or sports games, it just opens up the thing being betted on to anything and everything. People will still bet. The key is how “un-rigged” it appears to be.
Oh, so I can post a bet on anything. And the game only starts when somebody picks up the other side: betting against my prediction.
The platform puts up the bets, and you can “buy” a share in the “future prediction”
Basically you put in a sum on one option, buying a % of the winnings if that option is the one that the platform decides won.
Hold on… so somebody in the company defines the bets? Like bombing dates and stuff? Users just get to pick whatever is available?
Users suggest things, but yes the platform is in charge of what bets are available.