That’s what it was. Even the free, open source models are vastly superior to the best of the best from just a year ago.
People got into their heads that AI is shit when it was shit and decided at that moment that it was going to be stuck in that state forever. They forget that AI is just software and software usually gets better over time. Especially open source software which is what all the big AI vendors are building their tools on top of.
I tried one for the first time yesterday. It was mediocre at best. Certainly not production code. It would take just as much effort to refine it as it would to just write it in the first place.
If you read AI critics, you will see people presenting solid financial evidence of the failure of AI companies to do what they promised. Remember Sam Altman promised AGI in 2025? I certainly do, and now so do you.
Do you have any concrete evidence that this financial flop will turn around before it runs out of money?
Whether AI can reliably detect issues and generate working code is a whole different thing from CEO’s delusions and hyperbole to game the market. Their financial success is also irrelevant, in fact it’s better if the sub/token model fails and we are left with locally ran models.
Assume all the big AI firms die: Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. Poof! They’re gone!
Here would be my reaction: “So anyway… have you tried GLM-7? It’s amazing! Also, there’s a new workflow in ComfyUI I’ve been using that works great to generate…”
Generative AI is here to stay. You don’t need a trillion dollars worth of data centers for progress to continue. That’s just billionaires living in an AGI fantasy land.
Traditional software was developed by humans as an artifact that, and to the degree that humans improved the software for some task, got better, but it was not guaranteed. Windows 11 is proof of that, and there are a laundry list of regressions and bugs introduced into software developed by humans. I acknowledge you say usually and especially for open source — I lukewarm agree with that statement but disagree that large LLMs or other generative models will follow this trend, and merely want to point out that software usually introduces bugs as it’s developed, which are hopefully fixed by people who can reason over the code.
Which brings us to AI models, and really they should just be called transformer models; they are statistical tensor product machines. They are not software in a traditional sense. They are trained to match their training input in a statistical sense. If the input data is corrupted, the model will actually get worse over time, not better. If the data is biased, it will get worse over time, not better. With the amount of slop generated on the web, it is extraordinarily hard to denoise and decide what’s good data and what’s bad data that shouldn’t be used for training. Which means the scaling we’ve seen with increased data will not necessarily hold. And there’s not a clear indication that scaling the model size, which is largely already impractical, is having some synergistic or emergent effect as hoped and hyped.
Also, we’re really not in the infancy of AI. Maybe the infancy of widespread hype for it, but the idea of using tensor products for statistical learning algorithms goes back at least as far as Smolensky, maybe before, and that was what, 1990?
We are in the infancy of I’d say quantum style compute, so we really don’t have much to draw on beyond theoretical models.
Generative LLM models have largely plateaued in my opinion.
We’re in the infancy of AI in the sense that widespread use, testing and properly-funded development of these technologies only began a few years ago when massively parallelized processing became affordable enough, even though the concepts are older. You could say we’re in the infancy of practical AI, not theoretical.
That’s what it was. Even the free, open source models are vastly superior to the best of the best from just a year ago.
People got into their heads that AI is shit when it was shit and decided at that moment that it was going to be stuck in that state forever. They forget that AI is just software and software usually gets better over time. Especially open source software which is what all the big AI vendors are building their tools on top of.
We’re still in the infancy of generative AI.
I tried one for the first time yesterday. It was mediocre at best. Certainly not production code. It would take just as much effort to refine it as it would to just write it in the first place.
If you read AI critics, you will see people presenting solid financial evidence of the failure of AI companies to do what they promised. Remember Sam Altman promised AGI in 2025? I certainly do, and now so do you.
Do you have any concrete evidence that this financial flop will turn around before it runs out of money?
Whether AI can reliably detect issues and generate working code is a whole different thing from CEO’s delusions and hyperbole to game the market. Their financial success is also irrelevant, in fact it’s better if the sub/token model fails and we are left with locally ran models.
Assume all the big AI firms die: Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. Poof! They’re gone!
Here would be my reaction: “So anyway… have you tried GLM-7? It’s amazing! Also, there’s a new workflow in ComfyUI I’ve been using that works great to generate…”
Generative AI is here to stay. You don’t need a trillion dollars worth of data centers for progress to continue. That’s just billionaires living in an AGI fantasy land.
I’m sick and tired of AI fans making statements like
without evidence.
Citation needed.
Um… Where would it go? I’ve got about 30 models on my machine right now and I download new ones to try out all the time.
Are you suggesting that they’d all just magically disappear one day‽
Where do you think the “new ones” are coming from?
https://mastodon.social/@nixCraft/111695037458159431
Oh wow, comparing a thing to a completely different thing without demonstrating the comparison is valid.
Exactly the non-evidence I expected.
They should all be destroyed
Traditional software was developed by humans as an artifact that, and to the degree that humans improved the software for some task, got better, but it was not guaranteed. Windows 11 is proof of that, and there are a laundry list of regressions and bugs introduced into software developed by humans. I acknowledge you say usually and especially for open source — I lukewarm agree with that statement but disagree that large LLMs or other generative models will follow this trend, and merely want to point out that software usually introduces bugs as it’s developed, which are hopefully fixed by people who can reason over the code.
Which brings us to AI models, and really they should just be called transformer models; they are statistical tensor product machines. They are not software in a traditional sense. They are trained to match their training input in a statistical sense. If the input data is corrupted, the model will actually get worse over time, not better. If the data is biased, it will get worse over time, not better. With the amount of slop generated on the web, it is extraordinarily hard to denoise and decide what’s good data and what’s bad data that shouldn’t be used for training. Which means the scaling we’ve seen with increased data will not necessarily hold. And there’s not a clear indication that scaling the model size, which is largely already impractical, is having some synergistic or emergent effect as hoped and hyped.
Also, we’re really not in the infancy of AI. Maybe the infancy of widespread hype for it, but the idea of using tensor products for statistical learning algorithms goes back at least as far as Smolensky, maybe before, and that was what, 1990?
We are in the infancy of I’d say quantum style compute, so we really don’t have much to draw on beyond theoretical models.
Generative LLM models have largely plateaued in my opinion.
We’re in the infancy of AI in the sense that widespread use, testing and properly-funded development of these technologies only began a few years ago when massively parallelized processing became affordable enough, even though the concepts are older. You could say we’re in the infancy of practical AI, not theoretical.