Productivity gains from AI are appearing in many of the same fields where entry-level employment is starting to decline. Employment among software developers aged 22–25 has plummeted nearly 20% since 2024, even as their older colleagues’ headcount grows. The pattern repeats in other jobs with higher levels of AI exposure, like customer service. Meanwhile, firm surveys indicate executives expect this trend to accelerate, with planned headcount reductions outpacing recent cuts. Translation: The disruption is targeted and just beginning.
I posted this in one of the Sam Altman threads but I think it probably deserves its own post. There’s some other interesting things in the report.
Correlation doesn’t imply causation.
If you lay off 10% of your workforce, mostly juniors, and your KPIs are loose enough, there’s no reason to think that companies won’t succeed in pushing senior employees to meet them, mostly through overwork.
Also, certain companies track AI usage as a KPI in itself, so there’s a circular logic component to it.
If i produced 1000 widgets with zero defect and my replacrment produces 1000000, but they all have severe defects, is that counted as an increase in productivity?
Depends on what the targets are for the C-Suite, but in 2026 one could assume yes.
Given that some tech bros are measuring AI productivity in lines of code, yes, yes it does.