Probably. It’s hard to say since so much is behind the veil. In fact it’s likely China has its own DUV lithography supply. US estimates on what China can produced based on number of asml units sold is wildly wrong.

I don’t think you realize it, but your proving my point. I never said no Huawei chips would be sold. I said China wants to reach criticality with it’s users. With Huawei chips being more expensive and less capable, the big boys won’t buy Huawei. And the secondary market doesn’t matter to the big boys who will get it at MSRP because orders always go to them first. Since they have the most users and will have the most exposure for stress testing.

The last thing China wants is for Huawei to only sell to smaller companies and start ups where it’s entirely possible there will be no users and money wasted. That’s why the new law only targets the major companies.

*Edit on that point I’m going to predict the future now. In a few months we’re going to see an article saying China has bought record amounts of H20s and NVIDIA’s stocks are going to go up again. This is because the smaller companies are still going to be buying and at MSRP because the big boys can’t.

The problem is the Chinese chips are not cheaper. Huawei’s 910c is about 30% slower and 1/3 more expensive. Add on top of that a lack of software, without government force, who would buy it?

You’re right about that, BUT I’d argue that’s all small potatoes. If no one develops on Chinese chips, then they’ll never actually be competitive. The only way for China to push ahead in any capacity, or even to catch up is to have thousands of users on their chipsets.

Let’s look at the MooreThreads MTT80. When it started it was performing like a 2017 GPU GT1030. They did 0 hardware upgrades. I will repeat that 0 hardware upgrades. But today, it’s able to run the domestic game Black Myth WuKong at 4k at 40 fps. Yes I realize that means it stutters, but with no hardware changes they were able to make a fairly demanding modern game playable. What this has rang through out China I am sure is, China has to do everything on earth to fix their software. If that means banning NVIDIA, so be it.

Exactly right! This why China is banning the chips. They caught up in hardware and now need to catch up in software. If they continue to allow people to use NVIDIA chips, then their software will never progress as they won’t have users to optimize them.

Of course not? If they gave you that impression then you would pry. As I said, it’s pretty universal at this point. No mind reading needed. The fact that you were trying to do exactly what they’re trying to avoid is hilarious to me.

This is a tier 4 city in China. Which is far down the development ladder and considered poor.

https://youtu.be/kZon-AlmJbM

The vast majority of Chinese live in cities like this or better. Saying that there are still poor villages, well I give you this

https://youtu.be/fI30F0Vt88E

Kensington Philadelphia is so drug infested people walk around like zombies. Does China have poor areas like that? Actually no, even the poorest villages aren’t that bad.

They refuse to offer criticism to you, they will criticize the CCP constantly amongst themselves. They’ve sadly learned right or wrong that westerners are always trying to make China look bad. It’s largely from western news like BBC. Just look up the phrase China, but at what cost. The most hilarious one I read was China is curing cancer fast, but at what cost.

Am I missing the joke here? Your God damn right I’m going to be up eating the delicious breakfast buffet when I’m on vacation. And your also right that I’m going to sleep until lunch on the weekends so I don’t need to expend effort for breakfast. I literally can’t see doing this any other way.

And thus the cycle starts to repeat. It seems an eternal problem that people can’t separate individuals and their leaders, which always ends up one side violently killing the other for the actions of the few.

Zionists do not represent all Jews, this needs repeating.

Your right. It could be both. I mean, my wife said to me the other day that she heard Trump was doing the tariffs to lower the bond interest rates. I said while in some types of recessions that’s true, that wouldn’t work in this case and you’d have to be an idiot to think it would. Sure enough the next day Trump puts a stay on tariffs to most of the world because the bond market got rocked. All I could think of is omg, are they really that fucking stupid?

I wish it was that. No, this is actual evil, not incompetence. Trump has turned the US economy into the largest pump and dump scheme ever. Worse, he’s bragging about how his friends made billions. I can’t even believe this is happening. I’m in utter shock. I knew Trump would be bad, but straight up flaunting corruption like it’s a joke and even bringing the SCOTUS on board with this. I’m just gob smacked.

You don’t understand. Chinese companies have been preparing for this for almost a decade now thanks to US policies. Here’s manufacturing locations just for Moto.

https://motosmartphones.com/where-are-motorola-phones-made/

How much is it really made in Brazil? Enough to by pass the tariffs.

This is transhipment. China has been building an enormous transhipment network with those countries heavily dependent on Chinese heavy machinery and services. They expected this, they prepared for this. It’s the US companies that tried to obey their own countries rules that are susceptible. Even Samsung has been working with China to create these networks. Soon, I would estimate, Apple will as well. The problem is, if you thought Tik Tok was a national security issue, forcing every US company to use Chinese logistics to fight your own countries tariffs…

Oh god how stupid. China has built an entire transhipment network. China was never going to pay those tariffs anyway. Instead, US companies that desperately tried to follow the rules are still stuck shipping from China. So what happens next? US companies will now have to beg China access to these networks. You thought Tik Tok was a national security issue? When all your goods and services imports are controlled by China…

Worse the canceling of the deminis clause was only against China and HK. But both those companies have transhipment logistics networks across the globe. We are about to see millions of packages a month from dozens if not a hundred different countries. They’re asking for China to unleash what it’s spent the past 5 years building up.

The Trump government doesn’t understand. US previous actions created this. Perhaps if they did this immediately, China couldn’t respond. But China has been courting the global south for decades to set up a resilient logistics network for literally this reason. If you ever wondered what BRI is about, well your about to find out.

Oh god, what an allegory to the current state of USA. You have the symbol of America performing to an empty theater having upset everyone in the audience except for 2 people/countries. It’s coming collapse wasn’t a big deal because everyone had already left the theaters. It does seem to be somewhat predictive of the future.

Of course she does. All American politicians are Israeli puppets. It’s always been strange to me that this is the case. However, I’ve also never seen an example that goes against the grain. Even Sanders is all about decreasing weapons sent, not stopping.

No I’m saying regardless of your opinion, you shouldn’t have an opinion based on the source of the statement is what I’m saying. Yes MBS is trash, but I would still listen to what he has to say.

So you think giving people freedoms to drink and go to bars is a bad thing?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/saudi-arabia-opens-first-liquor-store-rcna135597

And yes I’m fully aware of Khashoggi. What I’m saying is all people all governments have good and bad. I can easily agree with many things that awful people do. It doesn’t make them any less awful, but I’m not so ignorant to be opposed to something just because an awful person says it.

So to hate a good idea just because of it’s messenger is ignorant at best and harmful at worst.

The reason I bring this up is because in USA it’s becoming more and more like this. That regardless of what the policy is, the only thing the stupid politicians care about now is who the messenger is. And it’s doing incredible damage to the country.

Now, obviously you’re just making a statement. I don’t really disagree with it as I think MBS is a horrible human being. But I really don’t like the idea of agreeing or disagreeing with someone based on the person saying it.

This is true, China doesn’t care. I’m actually confused about the narrative around China wanting to take TSMC. Even the most cursory glace at the situation should make it obvious this isn’t one of China’s goals. This is because these EUV machines don’t work on magic. They work on knowledge and spare parts. Even in the unlikely scenario that China somehow invades and these machines aren’t destroyed by either China or the retreating Taiwanese, they aren’t going to be able to operate them and more importantly get spare parts to keep them running. They’d at best be used to disassemble and review.

All of this ignores the fact that China is already at 5nm using their own equipment anyway. For the extra 2nm of difference between TSMC’s 3nm to SMIC’s 5nm isn’t large enough to rationalize anything close to what they’re talking about. It’d be cheaper to just keep subsidizing the Chinese industry rather than invading.

All of this is to say, that China may or may not invade, but TSMC isn’t on the list of reasons. If anything, it’s on the opposite end. China has a LOT of motivation to bomb TSMC to prevent the west from getting chips as if TSMC is gone, then suddenly Chinese 5nm are pretty much the most advanced chips in the world (besides Samsung). Thus, the real conclusion is we need to invest in Samsung, which surprisingly isn’t happening for whatever reason is beyond me.

It’s good that you point that out. Because it shows US really can’t sanction China and only entities within it like it does to its own allies as opposed to straight country sanctions like Iran and North Korea.

https://www.tradecompliance.pitt.edu/embargoed-and-sanctioned-countries

Here’s a list.

In fairness though, that list also shows the US can’t sanction Russia either. So not sure how much of a flex not being able to sanction China is.