That’s why I said it’s more expensive, but large companies can make it up in volume. The extra expense only makes sense if you can take advantage of the E.G. increased transport capacity provided.

Isn’t this functionally the same thing? What happens to smaller companies in this hypothetical? Are you not assuming that they get pushed out of the market shortly thereafter?

You’re assuming that LLMs can ever be made accurate. I think you might be able to make them somewhat more accurate, but you’ll never be able to trust their output implicitly.

I am assuming this. I am assuming that we’re at the bottom of this technology’s sigmoid curve, there is going to be a ton of growth in a relatively short amount of time. I guess we’ll have to wait to see which one of us has a better prediction.

As a programmer I am absolutely not worried in the slightest that LLMs are coming for my job. I’ve seen LLM produced programs, they’re an absolute trash fire, most of them won’t even compile let alone produce correct output. LLMs might be coming for really really bad programmers jobs, but anyone with even a shred of talent has nothing to worry about.

You have described the state of LLMs right now. Programming languages seem like a perfect fit for a LLM; they’re extremely structured and meticulously (well, mostly) defined. The concepts and algorithms used not overly complex for a LLM. There doesn’t need to be much in the way of novel creativity create solutions for standard use cases. The biggest difficulty I’ve seen is just getting the prompting clear enough. I think a majority of the software engineering field is on the chopping block, just like the “art for hire” crowd. People pushing the limits of the fields will be safe but that’s a catch 22, isn’t it? If low-level entry is impossible, how does one get to be a high-level professional?

And even if we take your [implied] stance that this is the top of the S-curve and LLMs aren’t going to get much better-- it will still be a useful tool for human programmers to increase productivity and reduce available jobs.

if we don’t adopt UBI, universal healthcare, and some amount of subsidized housing

This has been my stance for years. Automation is coming for all of us. The only reason LLMs are so controversial is that everyone in power assumed automation was coming for the blue collar jobs first, and now that it looks like white collar and creative jobs are on the chopping block, suddenly it’s important to protect people’s jobs from automation, put in safety nets, etc, etc.

Forgive my cynicism. haha

This feels like wishful thinking. Any automated system (cars, LLMs, etc) only need to be better than a human doing that job. Your example, for, um, example, ignores that self-driving trucks don’t need to take sleep breaks, or bathroom breaks, or spend time with their families, etc.

Using the assumption that this is the bottom of the curve for this LLM technology and that we still have a lot of expansion in the tech coming in a relatively short amount of time, then I would guess that any job that makes art that is “work for hire” will cease to exist, and I imagine programming is going to take a pretty big hit in available jobs. I don’t think you’ll be able to get rid of human programmers altogether, but you’ll need way fewer of them.

You shouldn’t trust ChatGPT for that, but your company could definitely spin up their own LLM and then we’re back at the problem.

but isn’t the artistic field already a lottery when it comes to making a living doing it? Maybe I have the wrong impression, but I feel like if “I very likely won’t be able to make a living doing this” actually discouraged new art from getting created, it already would be doing that.

Maybe I’m overlooking something, but isn’t the actual change that doing these things will no longer be a viable way to earn a living?

and honestly, businesses too. There is opportunity here in the business sector, I think.

As I understand it (and I may not!) deleting your account leaves all your comments in place, but without your username.