So, if the AI bubble pops, it’ll be a great time to build a PC
Like there won’t be some other hype to immediately take it’s place. Just like Bitcoin GPU prices never collapsed because it went right into AI hype.
AI messed up GPU prices even before AI was really a thing. When everyone was caught up in the Bitcoin hype, Nvidia already focused completely on AI instead of banking on the crypto hype, neglecting consumer GPUs. And we still feel that today.
Im seeing a pattern here (capitalism)
The next hype lined up is quantum
Fortunately they won’t need most normal PC hardware for this. At least not CPU’s and GPUs AFAIK.
“Quantum emulation” all the hype, 1/1000th the efficiency, 1000X the excuses to sell hardware
I was about to post this, but call it virtualized quantum.
It’ll probably just be LLMs claiming to have the same probability as a quantum calculator and just spit out made up primes so long we wont be able easily check them.
Tbf Bitcoin didn’t fuck with the GPU market, that was more etherium’s doing
Bitcoin trashed the GPU market before moving on to Asics. Then other coins kept going on GPUs.
Hadn’t bitcoin not been viable on GPUs for over a decade? Most of the cryptocurrency hype was mining other coins on GPUs, or using them to do blockchain calculations for NFTs and things.
That was barely a year or two. Bitcoin wasn’t very popular globally speaking when the first ASICs already was in development, and in between the two there was FPGA mining
Til. I’ve only ever seen the application specific boards for Bitcoin.
Which is even sadder because Ethereum has always been a trash coin.
Why? And which coins are good?
Ethereum formally introduced the concept of smart contracts, and they had serious potential for modernizing financial contracts and push back an entire predatory industry of leechers, but instead it was used to create meme-coins and scam coins and ruined it all.
It’s move to proof of stake instead of proof of work dramatically reduced its energy usage, and makes it a actually scalable, but the masses lost interest when they couldn’t just make money off a few GPUs and turned to the aforementioned shit-coins built on the Ethereum network.
Ethereum is not bad, it’s one of the better ones. It’s just kind of responsible for the explosion of shit/scam coins, because people are shitty scammers.
the masses lost interest when they couldn’t just make money off a few GPUs and turned to the aforementioned shit-coins built on the Ethereum network.
Most of the shit meme coins are on Solana.
Does Solana benefit from that?
The shitcoins were a thing also without ethereum, there was even a shitcoin generator website, pay 0.1 BTC (when it was worth like $100), upload your icon, choose the name, and download the compiled clients for mining that shit
The explosion of scam coins was basically inevitable, it’s what you get with zero regulation.
I thought similar during the GPU crypto mining phase. There’s always something blocking cheap PCs.
*Home server farm.
There are a lot of “refurbished” drives from when the Chia bubble popped (a useless shitcoin that wasted HDD space with garbage data as a proof of cryptographic work)
Data storage devices are the last items you wanna buy second hand though. A drive failing could mean much more than just having to buy a new one.
HDDs used for chia mining or similar shitcoins have been used for just a full wipe to create the huge rainbow table or whatever the shitcoin needed and then left on idle with very little read activity for years
It’s not the typical “end of life” server HDD with 80k hours of 24/7 full use
This makes me think: if chia and similar coins simply generated the monopoly money by “finding the right numbers on the right rainbow table” … were they a covert way for some government to have a distributed decryption network? Especially thinking how popular it was in china
Not really. Wrong type of math, not practical to reuse to break cryptography. There’s similar techniques that can be used against some algorithms, but not when set up like that.
Used enterprise drives are amazing value though. With enough redundancy in a RAID array it’s a great way to get storage in bulk.
Wish I could confidently say that it is going to pop soon, but I am not sure the current rebound is the bull trap. Maybe the correction was just a small blip in a huge bubble…
I’ll pray for this outcome, I need something that can actually run Unreal(requirements) Engine 5 games
THIS is what I’m looking forward to. I’m guessing it’ll start sometime next year, so shortly after Christmas '26 will be the optimal time -at least that’s my long-term plan.
Be a great time to set up RAID storage systems (or whatever I’m not that techie) mmmmmmm I cannot waaaaait to have something resembling a backup.
Required message that “raid is not a backup [solution]”, it’s an uptime and recovery system.
My primary server uses raid along with snapshots, full local backups, and off-site backups for critical data to two different cloud providers on different continents.
My second server backups images to the primary. My vps also backups to the primary. Both get the raid and snapshot treatment, and local, but not cloud. Gaming servers, boinc, and home assistant aren’t ‘critical’ :p
Nope. China vs. Taiwan at the horizon. They really want that island back. It won’t be good for world peace and really bad for EUV-lithography (TSMC).
China vs. Europe and China vs. US are topics, too. Hopefully limited to economic pressure.
There’s always the second hand market…
back
The current mainland China gov never had any real claims to it. The argument they use is the same as for why they believe they have the right to enforce Chinese law on Chinese people abroad, including having their own secret police in other countries, etc, they simply don’t accept being anything less than the sole authority and sole representative for everybody they consider to belong to any ethnicity which is “theirs”. The claims on the island doesn’t really have much to do with the island, but that it’s populated with people they consider theirs.
When the AI bubble pops we’ll all be too broke to buy any PC anything.
The Buffett Index, America’s total stock valuation vs. GDP, is at 200%. It was around 130% in 1929, 2000 and 2007. Guess what? Chicken butts. (is what we’ll all be eating)
Oh for fucks sake… I wanted to expand my NAS… Crypto was (is still responsible) for the shit state of the GPU Market and now it’s the next scam.
i just bought an 8tb drive a couple weeks ago with zero issue
Just got 12TB IronWolf last week for an average price if 260euro. Delivery is long but other than that, price is average.
Checked just right now - average 310euro for the same HDD. From the place I picked mine - 293. SCORE!
Thinking about this for a minute - that’s probably pre-Black-Friday prices. We’ll see
Imagine how I feel right now, I bought 16 used 20tb Seagate drives around September last year for $200 each, from Amazon, and finally built my dream NAS after a decade of waiting and planning. I don’t understand how I got so lucky but I did. They’re all working just fine, and I somehow avoided having to wait another decade to finally build my NAS due to random capitalism gold rush bullshit. Praise be.
Is IronWolf a website?
No. It is a HDD model of a brandSeagate that is designed to be used in NAS and such.
Note: Posted by the same media outlet that reported last week about the 9700X3D with zero fact checking
My theory is that we’re hitting that limit again, most people don’t need more than a terabyte or two tops, so companies adapt.
Kind of shite being on the “need a bit more” side because I feel they’ll do everything to bleed us dry. My 2022 4TB drive was less than 100€, today 3+ years later, it’s 139€.
This collapse when we only need 1/100 of what they are planning. Because not everyone is going to need a massive data center. Just like cars, computers and every other technology. It starts out diverse than shrinksssssssss.
Just thinking about all the electronic waste this is gonna generate is making me feel all icky
Think about all the HDDs that they will sell for cheap in 5 years.
I’m not really ever in the market for drives with forty thousand power on hours, are you?
I am no expert. What wears the drive down? Depending on the workloads the drives could be ok.
That might be a silver lining, but I also see a high possibility of companies just throwing everything onto a big pile of garbage or shipping it to fuck knows where instead of dealing with the hassle of reselling their no longer needed assets.
Will they even by allowed by the contracts to resell them?
Now may not be a good time to tell you about the Windows 10 EoL that recently lapsed, then.
The good thing about large businesses is that they don’t typically throw hardware in the garbage, especially drives. They’ll most likely either sell the wiped drives to a recycler/refurbisher, or donate them to a charity that does the same for the tax write-off.
This is one of the rare instances where being profit driven is helpful.
I worked in the surplus warehouse for a university, and all of their computer equipment went to a local prison with a program that has inmates refurbish them and gives them to schools in low income areas. The stuff that can’t be refurbished gets recycled.
Damn, I started building a home server this summer, and I still need some HDDs for a NAS…
This mainly effects NAND, HDD should not be affected.
The QLC NAND shortage is created by the HDD shortage, per the article.
Okay your right, just re-read it they are switching to QLC NAND. Honestly I personally think normal people should switch to used drive cheaper and in stock.
Unlike SSD, usage doesn’t affect HDD that much. https://serverpartdeals.com/
Yes, I’m definitely buying used, but suspect that prices will be affected there, too.
What else are these data centers going to hoard?
Jobs, GPUs, water, hard drives
Land.
Jet engines.
Privacy
Electricity
Ironic Microsoft doesn’t have enough electricity to power their hoarded gpus.
Yet people will scalp, buy more products and defend it by saying “but I need this”. There used to be a time, where consumers would drive the industry, not anymore. And this leads to companies doing what ever they want.
People just accept for no reason.Why HDD’s?
I thought LLMs ran on a fuckload of VRAM and thats pretty much it. So the GPU market was the main affected?
Stolen data
I assume RAID arrays for longer term storage.
I haven’t been following trends but I just looked on newegg, and HDD and SSD prices look about where they were before, or maybe a bit higher. It’s nothing like the Chia craze where every drive of any kind was snapped up by crypto miners. Or the simliar thing further back where a flood in Thailand(?) clobbered a factory so there were big shortages and price spikes. Right now you can get drives if you’re willing to pay for them. There just hasn’t been the usual downward price trend.
I was going to say hurricane, but you’re right, it was flooding in 2011.
Yeah, hurricanes aren’t really a thing in that region, they have monsoons instead.
I’ve been buying refurbished drives from ServerPartDeals and looking at my invoice from March versus now the price of the same drive has gone up 10% from $180 to $198 (Ultrastar HC530 14TB)
Keep in mind Black Friday is also coming, and a lot of vendors like to raise their prices a bit before so they can claim a sale on the day
Yep. I thought $100 for 8TB was expensive when I checked earlier this year and now the cheapest one is $140. Fuck 😂
$100 is actually a great deal. I had a bunch of shucked 8TB WD EasyStore in my media server previously, bought between 2018-2023, and I think the best deal I ever saw during that time was around that price. Around $12/TB was always my benchmark for a great deal on some drives.
RAID5, don’t fail me now!
As a PSA: depending on your needs (bcs I see a lot of simple homelabs RAIDing), consider second server or even second location simple snapshot backup vs same-machine duplication.
Like, which would you want to set up first depending on your specific risks profile.The later is like like a proper backup, the former more of a low-downtime strat (that most smol homelabs can do without - “just wait a day, mom”)
Eg as the most basic example - instead of local duplication you could have a small PC (even like some old Pi), big HDD, and rsync once a day.
(Ofc, with duplicated serves, finances permitting, you can also provide backup services which helps that downtime issue. And by finances I mean the rest of your server group stuff, which in my cases is mostly HDD cost anyways.)
Got it!*
*puts a Timeshift partition on the same RAID array
Lol (but ppl do that).
AI crap. Infesting everything. Search of all kinds, photo management, telephone menus, who knows what else. And it does none of it well.
I think your sentiment and the back end requirements of AI is a big downfall of it, as while your sentiment has validity in many public facing deployments of it there are some things it is actually succeeding at. I speak from experience having used it for several specific use cases which it excels at, but you and others probably don’t have time nor care that this is true. And again marketing idiots out weight the deliberate approach that engineers and others might want, much less the economy might need.
I posted this as a perspective on AI that is not given by AI, nor by someone who believes it will stay this way, but nor am I promoting it. I believe it’s more nuanced that just being crap, although it is taking over many things in life. I have used it, I know how to use it for good (keeping it private, local, and to help teach reasoning as well as do the thing that we need done (like dishes, bills, and other bullshit). I’m fully aware it’s a bubble (14 billion to 1.4 trillion for OpenAI alone), dislike it and hate the energy waste. You all just seem to want to keep up the ignorant web user stereotype.
Have fun down voting something you don’t really understand.literally no one is saying “we need to kill all pursuits of ai because it’s bad at organizing my photos”
The copium is hard with them innit?
Preaching down to folks who already have a good reason to hate your product is a good way to join that pile
Having done my research, and tried it, I’m not an ignorant F*** as I read and engage at least. You just like being a troll.
Man go fuck yourself
HaViNg DoNe My ReSeArCh!
What’s the over/under that they’re a Libertarian?
Not worth the wager
Was hoping to at least break even 😔
cases which it excels at
Uhuh
Like how my colleagues often come to me saying they fixed it with Cursor and when I check the UI where the bug was, the page doesn’t even load at all now.
I just had someone tell me they did something with AI and when I checked they didn’t even get right the very basic thing of coding around the right controller names. The fucking names were wrong. They didn’t even check the feature, they just shipped, called it fixed, and told me Cursor figured it out really quickly.
I’m tired of this. I’m REALLY tired of this, man…
Immich does photo management pretty well.
Think of all the cheap hardware being resold when the AI bubble pops.
There wasn’t as big of a price drop as I thought there would be when the crypto mining switched to ASIC from GPUs. Don’t know if all that hardware just got dumped or is sitting in a rack rotting somewhere. Hope that we get cheaper prices when the bubble pops, this artificial scarcity sucks.
Hope that we get cheaper prices when the bubble pops, this artificial scarcity sucks.
Not likely. Why would they give up money?
Yeah. I know. Wishful thinking.
Dare to dream ✊
I don’t have issues with local AIs, for things like searching your local immich instance, or controlling your local Home Assistant devices. That photo of a bird you took 3’ish years ago? Yeah, you can find it in like three seconds with a local AI search. Want to turn the lights on with a voice request? AI is one of the easiest ways for a layman to handle the language processing side of things. All of that is a drop in the ocean.
But corporations have been trying to cram it into everything, even when it’s not a good fit for what they want to do. And so far, their solution to making it fit hasn’t been to rethink their usage and consider whether or not it will actually improve a product. Instead, their approach has simply been to build more and bigger data centers, to throw increasing amounts of processing power at the problem.
The technology itself isn’t inherently harmful on the small scale. But it has followed the same pattern as climate change. Individual consumers are blamed for climate change, and are consistently urged to change their consumption habits… When it’s actually a handful of corporations producing the vast majority of greenhouse emissions. Even if every single person drastically changed their emission habits, it would barely make a dent in the overall production. It was all because of massive astroturfed PR campaigns to shift the blame away from those companies and onto individuals. And we’ve seen that same thing happen with AI, where individual users have been blamed for using AI, instead of the massive corporations.
Remember a year or so ago when they all spun down production so they could charge more money for drives? I do.
Ouch, I picked the wrong time to finally upgrade from my 12 year old laptop and Windows 7?
yeah win7 is better than any later winproduct
Just install Linux on it. My laptop is from 2011 and I’ve got bazzite on it and it’s been great. That should atleast get you through the bubble
Yeah but it’s a hardware issue that’s beyond my caring to try and troubleshoot. Random blue screens, memtest86 shows an error always at the same address no matter which sodimms I put or swap them around. I guess it runs until software enters that address range and blam! I think it might be power supply related at the board level, not the power brick. I don’t feel like changing capacitors at random, for all I know there might be voltage out of spec because a resistor value drifted.
If the memory error is in a small address range and you are willing to get super nerdy, you can tell the linux kernel to avoid the bad addresses. Some discussion in https://unix.stackexchange.com/questions/740806/user-friendly-way-to-apply-badram-patterns
Depends, is your choice of OS windows 10?
If so, you are fucked.
And what exactly has that to do with HDDs?
OP is upgrading FROM 12 yr old hardware during a time where hardware prices prices are rising due to a shortage of some components because AI data centers are demanding them.
Ok but what has that to do with HDDs??? Every normal Laptop nowadays comes with an M2 SSD…
Ok but what has that to do with HDDs??? Every normal Laptop nowadays comes with an M2 SSD…
But…OP isn’t upgrading their hardware…so they’re still rocking that 12yr old lappy-m’tappy
deleted by creator
It doesn’t need to have anything to do with SSDs. The point is there is a hardware shortage of something that most computers have and laptop manufactures can use that as an excuse to raise prices. Also just because most laptops come with M.2 SSDs doesn’t mean all of them would. There may be some that use 2.5" HDDs.
EDIT: After looking through the article this also affects SSDs.
That means if a firm wants to buy large-capacity hard drives, the backbone of nearline storage, it has to wait 24 months due to long lead times. As the news cycle suggests, AI money doesn’t wait for anyone, so hyperscalers are now switching to QLC NAND-based SSDs to avoid these backorders. Picking QLC over TLC allows them to maintain costs while achieving sufficient endurance for cold storage.
However, hoarding QLC NAND creates its own shortage, since every cloud provider in North America and China is now lining up to buy it. This could lead to SSD prices rising worldwide, as most value-oriented models use QLC to save costs. In fact, DigiTimes claims that production capacity for QLC is completely booked through 2026 at some NAND manufacturers.
First outrageous DDR5 RAM prices now ssd’s.
Welp. Won’t be upgrading my pc for the next few years I see
I need to get around to maxing out my DDR4 rig before those prices skyrocket too.
and hard drives too, right?
DDR4 too, as they phase it out. I bought 2x32GB of DDR4 for my older system 8 months ago for $80. Now a deal for 32GB is $90-100.
deleted by creator
