President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell this week to 38% , the lowest point since his return to power in January 2015, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that confirms the most severe decline he has faced in his second term.

The decline is mainly explained by discontent with the high cost of living —which affects voters across the board—and by the way the White House has handled pressure to release the Jeffrey Epstein case files , an issue that generated an unprecedented internal rift within the Republican Party.

The poll, conducted among 1,017 adults with a 3% margin of error, reflects a two-point drop compared to the survey from early November. Since January, Trump’s approval rating has fallen nine points .

• Trump’s approval rating in 2025, compared to his predecessor Joe Biden and his previous term in 2017. Photo: Reuters-IPSOS

Cost of living: the Achilles’ heel of economic Trumpism

The most visible strain is on the economy. Only 26% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living , down from 29% just two weeks ago.

Despite the White House’s efforts to present its tariff agenda as a “rescue of domestic industry,” public perception is different:

• 65% of those surveyed disapprove of his handling of the cost of living.
• One in three Republicans acknowledges that prices “aren’t going down.”
• Annual inflation remains around 3%, in a context of a cooling labor market.
• Even allies of Trumpism acknowledge the political damage. “It’s simple: people go to the supermarket and get angry . It doesn’t matter what the White House says,” explained Republican strategist Doug Heye.

In this climate, Trump announced the selective reduction of tariffs on basic products such as coffee, meat and bananas, a gesture interpreted as the first significant economic setback of his second term.

Epstein case: the rift within the Republican Party itself

The second blow came from an unexpected front: his own party. The House of Representatives—controlled by the Republican Party—passed a bill on Tuesday to force the Justice Department to release the complete files on the Epstein case .

Trump opposed it for months, pressured loyal members of Congress, and ended up clashing with emblematic figures of the MAGA movement, including:

• Marjorie Taylor Greene, now an outspoken critic.
• Lauren Boebert was summoned to the Situation Room to withdraw her signature of support (she refused).
• Thomas Massie, who led the internal revolt and forced the vote.

Faced with the inevitability of a break, Trump reversed his position on Sunday , claiming that he “has nothing to hide,” but the poll reveals the damage already done:

• Only 20% approve of his handling of the Epstein case.
• 70% believe the government is hiding information about Epstein’s clients.
• Among Republicans, 60% also think the government is hiding sensitive data.

The combination of widespread rejection and crisis within the Republican Party (also known as the Grand Old Party or GOP) represents the biggest test of domestic power for the President since his return to the White House.

Political wear and tear heading into the midterm elections

The collapse in the numbers comes on the eve of next year’s legislative elections, a context in which a President with 38% approval can become a burden for his own party.

Although Americans say Republicans continue to offer a “better economic vision” than Democrats, the erosion of the president’s image could:

• weaken Republican candidates in competitive districts;
• increase pressure on the Senate to join in the release of the Epstein files;
• deepen the divide between hardline Trumpism and traditional conservative sectors.

Independent strategist Mike Ongstad summed it up this way: “This is the biggest test of Trump’s power within the GOP. His influence is no longer absolute.”

• Trump’s approval rating in 2025, based on indicators of immigration, economy, and cost of living. Photo: Reuters-IPSOS

With a divided party, prices that won’t budge, and a politically charged scandal that has now reached Times Square—where a group of victims funded a huge billboard featuring Epstein’s statements about Trump—the President faces his greatest moment of weakness since January.

The open question is whether his approval rating can recover before the start of the legislative campaign, or whether this will be the turning point that marks the decline of his control over the Republican Party .