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Wow, $207bn by 2030? That’s a lot of money to lose! Maybe they should focus on making some actual profit instead.
The government will bail them out. They want the AI surveillance power but don’t realize how flawed it is. MK Ultra went on for 20 years before they realized they can’t use LSD to mind control people…
This is what the upcoming IMO is for. I wish I was joking
These headlines look like something out of the twilight zone.
If someone made a movie with Donald Trump as president and the whole AI slop in 2010, people would not like it because how unrealistic it is.
Corpo’s saying that it’s not a bubble in the face of this reminds me of “don’t look up” except more malicious.
Someone needs to shut that shit down- ASAP.
Leave it on long enough to fully kill FB, Insta, X, etc. THEN shut it down. We’re like 1/2 way there already
AI companies make up 1/3 of the current stock market value in the US. Nvidia alone is 7% of the stock market. 92% of 2025 GDP growth in the US has been from AI. They will get bailed out.
I am at a loss to what that would even look like. The bubble popping would mean the admission of AI (LLMs) not having a viable path to usefulness or return, so then what would a bail out even be? Money? To what end, the bubble would have burst and the idea of AI (LLMs) being anything but a money pit would be what makes the bubble burst in the first place. Unless they can show a path to profit (they can’t) then the bubble will burst in time or continue in an endless zombie state where they just pretend that somehow AI (LLMs) are the future while burning capital. If it does go into a zombie state (as so many other things in the us market are becoming) then the whole market will just slowly fail as the “hype” turns into disappointment. The only reason that the zombie state would be preferable is that entities need to invest their money somewhere and maybe some other thing in the market can take AI (LLMs) place, but even then why bother bailing out anyone?
Investors could be bailed out. As in you invested 10e11$, so now the government gives you that money back.
Bail out almost anyone that bought tech stocks? Seems unlikely, and it would be basically admitting the end of the stock markets legitimacy. Bailouts tend to be for companies on the edge of collapse.
I wanna say you’re wrong, because AI is absolutely not an essential service - like say a water or power company failing would be (or arguably banks). But knowing how deeply the AI tech bros have sucked up to and supported Trump I have to sigh and agree with you that they will probably be rescued from their own stupidity by the taxpayer.
I think they’re too big to bail out at this point
Also, no one wants US bonds right now, so we couldn’t borrow our way out of it even if we wanted to. We’d just have to print like a trillion or more dollars all at once
With the financial genius in the white house, I wouldn’t rule that out.
How do I short a currency?
Relative to a second currency, as a derivative on the foreign exchange market.
Same way you short anything else, you borrow it, sell it, and then buy it back once the price has dropped, and return it.
You buy foreign currency and then sell it back for USD when you want to realise it.
sell it back for USD
Therein lies the rub; I’m not starting with USD, nor do I want to be
Shorting means you expect the shit to go down in value. Usually to short something you borrow a stock from someone (not everyone can borrow stocks), pay the fee to the source, sell it for 100, wait, buy it back for 90, give it back to the original owner. You made 100 - 90 - fee.
Borrow 1000 usd from a bank (1), sell if for your target currency (2) that you think will raise compares to usd, wait, exchange 1000 usd from the target currency (2) and give it back to bank + rates (1).
What is left over in currency (2) is your profit.
Gold, commodities, etc.
Not talking about silver or gold but like a literal ton of copper or iron ore.
Meth powers activate.
Ha, the sad part is that meth use will increase inversely relative to the average households buying power. Meth is always affordable… just need to rip the wires out of your houses skin.
I first noticed the raw material value oddity was years ago when a bank was trying to sell me on a saving product, the return was below inflation and therefor useless. So I looked it up and if I bought a large amount of lead, and put it in my yard the lead cube would (even with the lead being loss into my grass) be worth enough after 10 years to give a better return then what the bank was offering.
You could always play the foreign exchange market. It’s an interesting idea, usually quite stupid, but if you get the timing of the USD collapse right, there’s money to be made.
Buy another.
The only possible customer for committed datacenter projects is the US government. the bailout is just buying all the datacenter time… because if not, China wins. Amazon, despite no congressional appropriations yet, has announced $50B datacenter to supply government customers.
China wins what? Except if they already won by far, they have similar AI, with similarly high costs and similarly low value, similarly not worth it. Either they also invest big and will crash just as hard, or they don’t and they’re just enjoying the show of US suiciding its economy through AI.
If you ever stream cable news in the background during business hours. experts will come on to tell you that if the US doesn’t bankrupt itself, then Russia or China wins. The only remaining hope for US economy seems to be to beat China at AI, because it can’t beat it at anything else. So, all the money for military, and AI to help military make Skynet, which will mostly be used to ensure establishment can control/kill Americans who don’t support Skynet for Israel supremacist rule over the US, is simply a continuation of the tautology of “all US money for militarist US establishment control over all of you”, but with more efficient AI.
I think you’re part right. I think they’ll attempt a bailout, but I don’t believe Trump’s appointments and the administration they’re creating have the skill to plan or execute a bailout (or admit to failure enough to identify that they need one in a timely manner)
They’re more likely to ram the economy full speed into rock bottom, then blame an outgroup (“the Democrats did this”) and pretend nothing could have been done.
they’ll try to get bailed out but you would have to bail out so many companies it’s not feasible. you cant just bail out one of these companies. they all propped their stock value up on each other, so unless you bail out every company in the tech sector, there will still be trillions of market cap wiped out.
this is a good thing though. it will mostly only affect those who are overly invested in ultimately unprofitable tech, and the rest of us will be able to buy cheap stock for companies affected like Google and Amazon that will be hit massively but obviously are not just gonna go out of business. it’s similar to the covid drop. sucked for rich people but for the average person it wasn’t a massive issue and even had money making opportunities attached to it as these big companies scrambled.
Lol bubble
How. How does this work? They lose astronomical amounts of money. Without a prospect to ever make enough to be in plus, not even talking about paying off all the investments. How does this system work? I never understand. Same with US economy.
Well, the stock market on the whole is about gambling. Legalized gambling that fucks over small-time investors. So … why should long-term viability matter? The gamblers want their cash, that’s what they’re there for, and they don’t care about bankruptcy or mass economic collapse.
Yes, but the scale of this… We’re talking billions being poured into things that are not sustainable in any possible way and every investment into it will end up down the drain.
AI companies will try to worm their way inside governments around the world, to “enhance” them. Then they’ll become “essential” cost of running said governments, being “impossible” to remove without serious disruption.
sooner than later, “agentic AI” will replace the “employee cost burden”. I presume they’ll charge per AI agent and produce revenue at scale.
everything you see in politics nowadays is a race against the clock to create infrastructure to “deal with” the unwashed, unemployed, hungry masses. UBI is not going to win out over soylent green.
Here’s the first admission I’ve found of what’s on the way: https://fortune.com/2025/11/20/gen-z-college-grad-unemployment-could-hit-25-percent-warns-us-senator-unprecedented-disruption-ai/
UBI is not going to win out over soylent green.
Establishment prefers solylent green solution to unneeded slavery for sure. UBI is an obvious winning political platform, even though it does not provide the proponents with maximum political power, the way that bandaids on oligarchist supremacism still allows for supremacism and soylent green to rise as the solution.
Simply, the answer, is to reject establishment politics, including Bernie as controlled opposition proposing nonsense that gets shot down for its stupidity, instead of UBI.
Also, an MIT study released today, said 135m US jobs could be replaced with AI agents.
This all presumes that OpenAI can get there and further is exclusively in a position to get there.
Most experts I’ve seen don’t see a logical connection between LLM and AGI. OpenAI has all their eggs in that basket.
To the extent LLM are useful, OpenAI arguably isn’t even the best at it. Anthropic tends to make it more useful than OpenAI and now Google’s is outperforming it on relatively pointless benchmarks that were the bragging point of OpenAI. They aren’t the best, most useful, or cheapest. The were first, but that first mover advantage hardly matters when you get passed.
Maybe if they were demonstrating advanced robotics control, but other companies are mostly showing that whole OpenAI remains “just a chatbot”, with more useful usage of their services going through third parties that tend to be LLM agnostic, and increasingly I see people select non OpenAI models as their preference.
But, but… surely, the most important AI application of all time, my OpenAI girlfriend, who truly loves me beyond all monetization opportunities, will never be replaced by a hotter newer model.
Simple, you invest in the company, wait for the stock price to grow and sell before it collapses. Everyone knows it will collapse eventually but for now there’s still money to be made.
I think you just explained it to me so I finally understood. Thanks!
What if it’s not a publicly traded company like OpenAI?
You always have to think like a scammer. Sure, OpenAI isn’t public yet. But there are many other industries that are piggybacking on OpenAI and related services. So you can invest in them instead.
Same deal but you sell to other investors.
He who controls the spice, controls the universe.
Because companies don’t do R&D anymore, they fund startups and aquire them when they’re ripe
Being able to replace workers with AI is a holy Grail for capitalism, and so a ton of companies have poured their saved up “R&D funds” in order to get in early
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so it isnt free access. you want my email address and personal data in exchange for this “FrEe” article
> demands access to quality timely journalism and commentary
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Quality? Timely? … I disagree, but to each their own.
temp-mail.org for email, lie for the rest.
[email protected] <- you can even use that account if you like, password is the same as the email.
Nah, fuck them. Ain’t wasting my time and giving these fucks any traffic to their site.
I like mailsac. Any user handle and no signup.
Tempmail is no signup as well.
Fuck that. #ad
This is peak bubble type news. AI is becoming rapidly more energy efficient. These events will be looked back on like pets.com reaching hundreds of millions and then dying.
okay lmao
Is it becoming useful yet?
Sometimes. As a tool, not an outsourced human, oracle, or some transcendent companion con artists like Altman are trying to sell.
See how grounded this interview is, from a company with a model trained on peanuts compared to ChatGPT, and that takes even less to run:
…In 2025, with the launch of Manus and Claude Code, we realized that coding and agentic functions are more useful. They contribute more economically and significantly improve people’s efficiency. We are no longer putting simple chat at the top of our priorities. Instead, we are exploring more on the coding side and the agent side. We observe the trend and do many experiments on it.
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/the-zai-playbook
They talk about how the next release will be very small/lightweight, and more task focused. How important gaining efficiency through architecture (not scaling up) is now. They even touch on how their own models are starting to be useful utilities in their workflows, and specifically not miraculous worker replacements.
I am a developer. While AI is being marketed as snake oil, the things they can do is astonishing. One example is it reviews code a lot better than human beings. It’s not just finding obvious errors but it catches logical error that no human would have caught.
I see people are just forming two groups. Those who thinks AI will solve everything and those who thinks AI is useless. Neither of them are right.
One example is it reviews code a lot better than human beings. It’s not just finding obvious errors but it catches logical error that no human would have caught.
No, it does not.
Source: Open-source contributor who’s constantly annoyed by the useless CodeRabbit AI that some open source projects have chosen to use.
And how many errors is it creating that we don’t know about? You’re using AI to review code but then someone has to review what the AI did because they fuck up.
If humans code something, then humans can troubleshoot and fix it. It’s on our level. But how are you going to fix a gigantic complicated tangle of vibe code that AI makes and only AI understands? Make a better AI to fix it? Again and again? Just get the AI to code another system from scratch every month? This shit is not sustainable.
It’s not just finding obvious errors but it catches logical error that no human would have caught.
I’m not having the same experience.
Maybe reconsider which model you’re using?
If there was a model that coded perfectly then there wouldn’t be a plurality of models. There would just be THE model.
It’s like companies having competing math formulas for structural engineering where some work and others don’t. It’s insanity.
Yes, as far as scalability, cheaper more efficient models can be used in applications which require thousands of uses a day.
lol
What’s your knowledge regarding LLMs, if any at all?
Give us your data or: “$1 for 4 weeks Then $75 per month.”
Just $75 . What. The. Fuck.
Hmm. That matches my recent napkin math guessing where they would land.
It’s a little short of what they probably need, but they can always raise prices in a few months.
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Yeahhhhhno
The supermarket has free food. Just pay for it before you leave.
OpenAI is a money pit with a website on top. That much we know already, but since OpenAI is a private company, there’s a lot of guesswork required when estimating the depth of the pit.
HSBC’s US software and services team has today updated its OpenAI model to include the company’s $250bn rental of cloud compute from Microsoft, announced late in October, and its $38bn rental of cloud compute from Amazon announced less than a week later. The latest two deals add an extra four gigawatts of compute power to OpenAI’s requirements, bringing the contracted amount to 36 gigawatts.
Based on a total cumulative deal value of up to $1.8tn, OpenAI is heading for a data centre rental bill of about $620bn a year — though only a third of the contracted power is expected to be online by the end of this decade.
To check OpenAI ability to pay, HSBC’s team first had to build a model to forecast revenues.
Its starting point is to put user numbers on an S-curve that by 2030 reaches 3bn, “equivalent to 44 per cent of the world’s adult population” ex China. That’s versus an estimated total user base last month of approximately 800mn:
Advertising, agentic AI and possibly even Jony Ive’s thing can contribute to revenue by the end of the decade, For now, the business is mostly cajoling this user base to sign up for subscriptions.
LLM subscriptions will become “as ubiquitous and useful as Microsoft 365”, HSBC says. It models that by 2030, 10 per cent of OpenAI users will be paying customers, versus an estimated 5 per cent currently.
The team also assumes LLM companies will capture 2 per cent of the digital advertising market in revenue, from slightly more than zero currently.
What results is gangbusters revenue growth:
… but with a parallel rise in costs, meaning OpenAI is expected to still be subsidising its users well into next decade:
… meaning each new OpenAI fundraise will be for shovelling cash to data centre owners:
For what it’s worth, we can summarise a few of the assumptions HSBC is making for the estimates above:
Total consumer AI revenue will be $129bn by 2030, of which $87bn comes from search and $24bn comes from advertising. OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely. Enterprise AI will be generating $386bn in annual revenue by 2030, though OpenAI’s market share is set at 37 per cent from about 50 per cent currently. Everyone else stays more or less where they are now, market share wise.The bottom line is that, for OpenAI, it’s nowhere close to enough.
HSBC’s model assumes that OpenAI’s rental costs will be a cumulative $792bn between the current year and 2030, rising to $1.4tn by 2033. The projection matches OpenAI’s eight-year guidance that CEO Sam Altman is exasperated at being asked to discuss.
OpenAI’s cumulative free cash flow to 2030 may be about $282bn, it forecasts, while Nvidia’s promised cash injections and the disposal of AMD shares can bring in another $26bn. The broker also includes OpenAI’s $24bn of undrawn debt and equity facilities and, at the 2025 mid-year point, its $17.5bn of available liquidity.
Squaring the first total off against the second leaves a $207bn funding hole, to which HSBC adds a $10bn cash buffer for safety’s sake.
These estimates might prove overly cautious, though guessing how is a finger-in-the-air exercise.
Each extra 500mn users OpenAI can grab will add about $36bn to cumulative revenue between now and 2030, while converting 20 per cent of the customers to paid subscriptions might bring in an additional $194bn over the same period, HSBC says. Assumptions for LLM spend and computing costs are flexed in similar ways, though the possibility of OpenAI chancing on Artificial General Intelligence is not put through the model.
If revenue growth doesn’t exceed expectations and prospective investors turn cautious, OpenAI would need to make some hard decisions. Oracle has spooked debt markets, Microsoft’s support for OpenAI has been a bit flip-flop lately, and the next-biggest shareholder is SoftBank.
The best worst option might be to call in some favours and walk away from data centre commitments, either before or at the usual contracted period of four to five years. HSBC says:
Given the interlaced relationships between AI LLM, cloud, and chips companies, we see a case for some degree of flexibility at least from the larger players (less so for the neo clouds): less capacity would always be better than a liquidity crisis.What might not be clear from the above is that the HSBC software team is very, very bullish on AI as a concept. Here’s an entirely representative section of the note:
We expect AI to penetrate every production process and every vertical, with a great potential for productivity gains at a global level. [ . . . ] Some AI assets may be overvalued, some may be undervalued too. But eventually, a few incremental basis points of economic growth (productivity-driven) on a USD110trn+ world GDP could dwarf what is often seen as unreasonable capex spending at present.And when it’s put like that, is $207bn to tide things over really such a big ask?
as ubiquitous and useful as Microsoft 365
What a line! Directly referenced a hated service that butchers a whole suite of actually ubiquitous products.
I don’t know a single person who pays for M365. Companies pay for it because they’ve been locked in and/or are forced to for government compliance reasons, but no one actually wants that. Fucking ace thing to compare your AI service to, dipshit.
