I don’t think so, and I’m on the Ed Zitron train of thought why not.
The financial instruments got a bailout in 08, because the economy itself would stop functioning. That’s different than the stocks would drop. Also, there’s like nothing to bail out? OpenAI and their ilk are just sucking down capital and returning nothing. Even if they get one bailout, they need a continuous stream of unlimited money forever? I don’t think it’ll happen.
If Trump is still in charge when the bubble pops, he’ll do everything he can to bail them out. Altman knows how to flatter people, and he’s doing that constantly with Trump. A significant part of Trump’s base is silicon valley techbros who will lose their shirts if the bubble collapses. They had enough sway to get their guy installed as the VP. Getting a bailout will be easy for them. If they get poor, they won’t be able to fund the MAGA movement.
Even if Trump isn’t in charge anymore. Businesses that have fired a lot of employees and replaced what they did with LLM slop will say their businesses will be ruined if the bubble suddenly pops, so they’ll frame it as the economy collapsing if the LLM bubble is allowed to pop. Not to mention they’ll claim it’s a national security matter because if American LLMs disappear the only ones left will be Chinese ones, and that would be a threat to national security. The fact that the military is extensively using LLMs in their bombing of Iran shows how integrated they now are into the way the military does things, and you can’t ask the military to just go back to how things were done 5 years ago!
I expect that when the LLM bubble starts to pop, there will be enormous bailouts from the government, adding tens of trillions to the US debt. That’s a long-term thing and will be someone else’s problem.
… why should the investors get their money back? They invested ludicrous amounts of money into a technology with obvious limitations from the start with the intention of using that technology to replace many people’s jobs. Losing that money will be a better lesson than some probably unenforceable “pact”.
They have to sign a pact that they must not invest into AI anymore for a given amount of years (20+ minimum).
Problem is this might hurt actual AI research to punish a scam that has absolutely nothing to do with AI other than having coopted the name for marketing purposes.
(Any investment in actual AI research is doomed for decades anyway when this bubble pops, but this would cause even more harm than the bubble has already caused.)
(Also any form of research is probably ruined for decades anyway due to LLM-induced brain rot and having to sift through all the slop to try to recover any remaining fragments of actually useable knowledge, but, again, let’s not make it even worse than it already is).
I don’t think so, and I’m on the Ed Zitron train of thought why not.
The financial instruments got a bailout in 08, because the economy itself would stop functioning. That’s different than the stocks would drop. Also, there’s like nothing to bail out? OpenAI and their ilk are just sucking down capital and returning nothing. Even if they get one bailout, they need a continuous stream of unlimited money forever? I don’t think it’ll happen.
I hope I’m right, cuz damn that shit is cancerous
If Trump is still in charge when the bubble pops, he’ll do everything he can to bail them out. Altman knows how to flatter people, and he’s doing that constantly with Trump. A significant part of Trump’s base is silicon valley techbros who will lose their shirts if the bubble collapses. They had enough sway to get their guy installed as the VP. Getting a bailout will be easy for them. If they get poor, they won’t be able to fund the MAGA movement.
Even if Trump isn’t in charge anymore. Businesses that have fired a lot of employees and replaced what they did with LLM slop will say their businesses will be ruined if the bubble suddenly pops, so they’ll frame it as the economy collapsing if the LLM bubble is allowed to pop. Not to mention they’ll claim it’s a national security matter because if American LLMs disappear the only ones left will be Chinese ones, and that would be a threat to national security. The fact that the military is extensively using LLMs in their bombing of Iran shows how integrated they now are into the way the military does things, and you can’t ask the military to just go back to how things were done 5 years ago!
I expect that when the LLM bubble starts to pop, there will be enormous bailouts from the government, adding tens of trillions to the US debt. That’s a long-term thing and will be someone else’s problem.
plus AI is very useful as a right wing propaganda tool.
I think a potential OpenAI “bailout” should go something like this:
… why should the investors get their money back? They invested ludicrous amounts of money into a technology with obvious limitations from the start with the intention of using that technology to replace many people’s jobs. Losing that money will be a better lesson than some probably unenforceable “pact”.
Problem is this might hurt actual AI research to punish a scam that has absolutely nothing to do with AI other than having coopted the name for marketing purposes.
(Any investment in actual AI research is doomed for decades anyway when this bubble pops, but this would cause even more harm than the bubble has already caused.)
(Also any form of research is probably ruined for decades anyway due to LLM-induced brain rot and having to sift through all the slop to try to recover any remaining fragments of actually useable knowledge, but, again, let’s not make it even worse than it already is).