If anything has ever given me direction/a path in life it’s probably randomness and odds of something, so should I start a cult of probability?
One thing as a stem major I have found is stem majors do not like to say something is X. We like to say its likely X or most certainly X and maybe we will say this is like 95% so or 99% or 90%. I have found managers don’t like this type of talk. ie - will it work or won’t it. Well its the way to go and im like 99% sure this will work.
Similar with “How long will this take?”
Well, if I were able to put everything aside and ignore all requests while working on that, it would probably take two weeks. Given the rate at which other emergencies spring up and take precedence, I’m assuming I’d probably actually get it done in 3-4 months.
“I’m going to tell them to expect it in two weeks.”
I wouldn’t do that.
“Already did.”
honestly even if I am to assume all effort towards something I hate trying to estimate. I have no idea what problems I will come across until im doing it.
Yeah preset timelines only really work with repetitive labor where you do the same thing every time and it takes the same amount of time every time.
One of my projects at work is so huge, I was asked for a timeline and had to tell them if they want a realistic timeline, it’ll be a week uninterrupted to work on coming up with one for them. They proceeded to ask chatgpt for a timeline, and it spat one out that is most likely about an order of magnitude shorter than it’s going to take us to do.
ChatGPT made the promise, let ChatGPT keep it.
oh yeah and there are plenty of. how long to do X. where its a common or straight forward thing and then timeline is no problem. But whent its about getting a solution going or integrating a system that is nonstandard (which somehow they always are) its ugh.
The Rationalist Community kind of beat you to it.
I’m not going to bother explaining to you why you shouldn’t, because Robert Evans has a multi part series on it over at Behind the Bastards.
Edit to add: there’s actually more than one multipart series on cults started by rationalists obsessed with probability. People have actually died.
Super interesting will look into these are the same guys that made the bezos and his college life one that was quite funny
The AI cult and the Zizzians are the episodes you’re looking for.
And I recommend the Dollop as a chaser, any of the baseball episodes. 10 cent beer night is the best one but save that for one of the episodes where Robert says it’s one of the darkest ones they’ll ever do.
There already is a cult of probability. It’s called Las Vegas.
I misread that as “to believe in Potbelly.”
Now I want a sandwich.
Lord of potbelly is great too he might bless me with pesticide free food
How random!
Have you read The Dice Man?
Classy
No. Go on…
A classic novel about a guy who decides to make every life decision based on tossing a dice
