Al Roker was the weatherman in New York City, and three years ago we had a blizzard. We were supposed to have, according to Al, 4 to 12 inches of snow. That’s his prediction. We had 36 inches. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, he was two feet off. THAT’S NOT EVEN IN THE BALLPARK! If you were a roofer and you built a roof and it was two feet off, you’d still be in prison.
While I love Black and the routine, I always am baffled when people complain about the weather reports getting it wrong.
For the last million years of human society, the only predictor we had for weather was passed-down stories and signs in the sky to indicate changing seasons. We knew it gets cold in winter, but we had no idea when exactly the first snowfall would be, or if there would be a blizzard that would kill half the tribe.
Today we get very accurate predictions up to a week in advance when actual storm systems are approaching because we have god-like eyes in space that can see the goddamn clouds FROM ABOVE.
We are Gods incarnate, we can see into the future with magic in space. If the storm dumps more rain than expected, wow great… nature still is complicated, you still knew a storm was coming!
That spiel is funnier if you also read it in Lewis Black’s tone.
Or you learn to smell it and feel it. But it’s not good for distant weather and the earlier you feel it the worse it’ll be. It’s a common skill in places with stupid amounts of weather like the American Midwest.
Note to self: never move to the American Midwest. I get sinus migraines from changes in barometric pressure, and can usually tell when a rainstorm is coming from the sinus pressure.
So I actually do too funnily enough. Comparing it to the pacific northwest, here I get a mild headache when it switches between wet times and dry times, but there I got a decent headache every few weeks in the spring and autumn and the occasional in the summer. I miss tornado season though, sure my head hurt, but the howl of the wind, the wall in the sky that looks like the world will end, then heavy rains that you sit in a garage with the door open smoking pot with your friends and watching. I don’t miss much about Ohio, but tornado season was nice.
Climate change has increased the chance for extreme weather and made it harder to predict when it will actually happen. Those moments happened more when the models weren’t taking into account what climate change has done.
I’ve seen the climate shift before my eyes too but I mean the specific storm predictions but not hurricanes tracking which has actually become very accurate
The local storm predictions I will watch update in real time and dramatically reduce all their numbers as it comes in that it wasn’t the worst case scenario
It’ll be “accurate” when it finally is the worst case scenario so nobody will be underprepared but it annoys me that it’s constant specific forecasting doom until it isn’t
After watching weather with my own peepers for close to five decades in a cognitive capacity, I can safely say that weather is just getting more extreme all around.
Lewis Black
Unless it was the prison roof that you built.
While I love Black and the routine, I always am baffled when people complain about the weather reports getting it wrong.
For the last million years of human society, the only predictor we had for weather was passed-down stories and signs in the sky to indicate changing seasons. We knew it gets cold in winter, but we had no idea when exactly the first snowfall would be, or if there would be a blizzard that would kill half the tribe.
Today we get very accurate predictions up to a week in advance when actual storm systems are approaching because we have god-like eyes in space that can see the goddamn clouds FROM ABOVE.
We are Gods incarnate, we can see into the future with magic in space. If the storm dumps more rain than expected, wow great… nature still is complicated, you still knew a storm was coming!
That spiel is funnier if you also read it in Lewis Black’s tone.
Man I hate how AI and non-serif fonts have ruined my reading of so many things.
Monday: “It will rain on Saturday and Sunday.” (Makes no outdoor plans for the weekend)
Wednesday: “It might rain on Saturday, it will rain on Sunday.” (Still no outdoor plans)
Friday: “It will rain on Monday and Tuesday.” (Too late to make outdoor plans)
Doesn’t rain for the entire month.
Gotta rely on old people and their bum knees to predict the weather.
Or you learn to smell it and feel it. But it’s not good for distant weather and the earlier you feel it the worse it’ll be. It’s a common skill in places with stupid amounts of weather like the American Midwest.
Note to self: never move to the American Midwest. I get sinus migraines from changes in barometric pressure, and can usually tell when a rainstorm is coming from the sinus pressure.
So I actually do too funnily enough. Comparing it to the pacific northwest, here I get a mild headache when it switches between wet times and dry times, but there I got a decent headache every few weeks in the spring and autumn and the occasional in the summer. I miss tornado season though, sure my head hurt, but the howl of the wind, the wall in the sky that looks like the world will end, then heavy rains that you sit in a garage with the door open smoking pot with your friends and watching. I don’t miss much about Ohio, but tornado season was nice.
I’m pretty sure enough of these moments is why we now have absolutely catastrophic weather forecasts every other week but they usually aren’t so bad
Climate change has increased the chance for extreme weather and made it harder to predict when it will actually happen. Those moments happened more when the models weren’t taking into account what climate change has done.
I’ve seen the climate shift before my eyes too but I mean the specific storm predictions but not hurricanes tracking which has actually become very accurate
The local storm predictions I will watch update in real time and dramatically reduce all their numbers as it comes in that it wasn’t the worst case scenario
It’ll be “accurate” when it finally is the worst case scenario so nobody will be underprepared but it annoys me that it’s constant specific forecasting doom until it isn’t
After watching weather with my own peepers for close to five decades in a cognitive capacity, I can safely say that weather is just getting more extreme all around.
It’s over 80° in Phoenix and parts of SoCal this week, the first week of February. We’re absolutely fucking fucked.
Meanwhile parts of Texas and the East Coast have gotten more snow than they’ve seen in a decade.
No, it’s because Trump cut off access to data from weather satellites.
It’s been like this for longer than Trump cut off access from one satellite
Well we’ve just generally not been great at funding any science agency for quite a while.
The European weather models have also been overstating severe weather
I really just think it’s as I said and nobody wants to be caught under predicting weather so they default to the worst values their models predict
Bad thing now is that I ignore them.