I don’t really know what the fuck it is that they expected. They could have asked anyone who wasn’t a so called investment expert and figured it out ages ago. Idiots.
Enter the perennial suckers/bag holders, pension funds, run by ivy league hacks that get paid regardless of performance and run these funds.
Yeah, no. Fuck the banks.
Why do I think that there is a government bailout brewing?
with the iran/oil crisis and him grifitng pump nd dumping, i it likely wont be enough this time.
Are all these data centers really going to be running at full capacity with open models like Qwen 3.6 27B that have performance approaching frontier, but can run on consumer hardware? Sure, it’s slow as of now, though there are tweaks to optimize it, and how long until we see open models that run reasonably fast and give frontier models a run for their money? My company MacBook can run models like this, so will there be a point where companies stop paying hundreds per user per month for cloud AI and have devs run open models on the laptops they already have? I definitely won’t be surprised if that’s the case.
Groups including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and SMBC are trying to find ways to distribute portions of data centre-related deals to a broader range of investors, according to people familiar with the matter.
Lenders are exploring private deals to sell stakes in the debt as well as so-called risk transfers to reduce exposure to big borrowers and free up capacity for more lending.
This gives me strong deja vu for the housing crisis of '08.
so-called risk transfers to reduce exposure to big borrowers and free up capacity for more lending.
That sounds like it should be highly illegal.
“Hey, we know this crash is coming, and we’re going to leave you with the bill for it even though we profited enormously off of the bubble economy which directly resulted in the inevitable crash. And while we wait for that crash to happen, we’re going to continue milking that bubble for the last few scraps of profit that we can squeeze out of it, which we will also leave you with the bill for when it finally crashes.”
They’ll buy crypto with our 401ks then “bail-in” all bank deposits to cover the remaining losses. FDIC insurance will take over a decade if losses can even be recouped.
If you use their products, you agree to these terms.
I always thought it was stupid to entrust one’s retirement to a 401k, when the very basis of the economy is cracking at the seams and will eventually crumble to the ground. It’s building your future on a pillar of sand.
Of course, people rely on their 401ks as a retirement plan because the system is built around forcing that as their only option.
On the bright side, once it all crumbles and there’s nothing left for us peasants, while the executives make away on their golden parachutes, people will no longer have a reason not to tear the system down. Right now the reason it’s so hard to convince people to replace the system is because “What will that do to my 401k?”
Like, dude, you won’t need a 401k if we can successfully replace the system. That will take time though, of course. And whoever is at retirement age during the transition may be screwed for a while until we can get the new system in place.
That’s why people who want to tear the system down immediately and think about what comes next after (or not at all), while shaming people for not being onboard with that, are thoroughly deluded.
I agree with most of your points, but I don’t think it’s that black and white. That said, I don’t use a 401k because it isn’t the only option, so I still have a place to put money for retirement that I manage. I see it being similar to avoiding Amazon and voting with your wallet.
I mean yeah, if you have the investment know-how and the time to dedicate to that, you can use a self-managed retirement fund and potentially do better than you would with a 401k. But not everyone has the time or expertise to do that.
I don’t know if there are retirement accounts that solely invest in certified B-corps or with minimum ESG standards, but if so that might be an option. Those just tend not to grow as aggressively so people tend to overlook them.
I bet they’re going to start selling CDO2 again, only this time the underlying debt will be data center debt instead of mortgages.
What? You don’t want to buy a few tranches of GPU backed securities?
I’d rather just buy the GPUs second-hand after the companies fail and have to liquidate…
Last time it happened, trillions in tax dollars were funneled right to the top. They would be stupid not to try again
I’m sure they learned their lesson…
… which is why they’re fine with it happening again.
plus trillion+ funneled into pockets of billionaires during COVID relief funds.
Wait wait. Actually can I just buy some and act like it’s a gpu preorder?
I want to short the housing. I mean GPU market.
well maybe call in the debt, force them to pay back a portion to mitigate the fallout. a bailout wont be able to save the fallout of the AI scam.
Was just going to say that…
I was also going to say that.
Eh, if they’re actively talking about it, then it’s a lot better than the housing crisis. The big issue there was no one was actually calling the garbage assets garbage. Here they seem to be calling out the risk.
That’s not true at all. People were screaming their heads off about the looming crisis.
Maybe my memory isn’t right, but I thought the big deal with the 08 crash was that few people saw it coming as the bad assets were bundled together with okay assets hiding their real risk. If AI takes down the economy, it’s not going to be surprising to most people as many people are calling out how overleveraged some of these companies are.
nah. everyone knew it was shit but back then, just like now (in fact…they still sling that same old bad collaterized debt shit from back then too)…government is captured by those profiting off of selling the stuff. once the music stops, the powers that be will pretend they had no clue, give a blank check bailout to the corpos and tell everyone else to pound sand.
we’ve done this dozens of times over by now in the US
Reading further into, it’s a mixed bag. There are people calling it out, but some of the movement of funds is to free up more lending.
These are the too-big-to-fails, right? So they must be destroyed then.
Won’t happen when the only politicians we can vote for are corpodems and other republicans.
This AI bubble is going to take so much of the economy with it and I can’t help but think we are all going to be paying to keep “too big to fail” businesses that clearly knew it was a bubble but invested anyway because the public would pay if it went side ways.
Nah, AI Corpos are not too big to fail. A lot of Money has been dumped into this hole, but it’s irrelevant for keeping the economy itself running. Oracle will not survive its stupid deal with OpenAI tho when the venture capital dries up and Altman can’t pay for Stargate Abilene.
Hanta Virus going transmissable, oil shock already as big as COVID from the war… Going to be a bad summer.
Fucking Hantavirus?
looks it up
First case is on a cruise ship. What a surprise.
also the massive loss of jobs, from the layoffs in favor of using AI is probably worst than 08 crash anyways.
Very few of the job losses attributed to AI are really because of AI. Mostly it’s just a bloated tech sector shedding weight and using AI as an excuse because it plays well with shareholders. The reality is that they over-hired when credit was cheap and now they’re looking at their bottom lines and trying to find ways to be more efficient.
Aww, did you buy a bunch of correlated debt and refuse to validate whether the underlying assets would be profitable?
That’s too bad.
Let the bubble pop
Let the bank fail.
The point of this is that they are arranging for other people to fail. Like your pension fund or ira.
LET THEM FAIL.
I agree. However, we all know the Federal Reserve will not allow this to happen and that they will just print the money to make them solvent, just like in 2008.
What is the possibility of that leading to hyperinflation?
It’s always possible, but my guess is that it wouldn’t happen. At least not for now. According to the government, officially, inflation is like 3%, and it takes something like 50% for it to be considered hyperinflation. However, everybody knows that the government inflation figure is understated, and the inflation rate is more like 7% or 8%.
It’s like they suddenly realized that “data center leased to Oracle” but financed by them and owned by a no-name company with no assets and considerable liabilities is a bad idea.
Also, would not be surprised to find the company is a shell company and after the finance and legal teams are paid, the income shifts back through shell companies to the parent company, which is somehow Oracle, but with no legal responsibility to the lenders or municipality.
Even if my supposition is not accurate, just the first statement should have stopped them cold.
they finally realized OPENAI is full of sht, even to the point THIEL came out of the woodworks trying to make some wild claims about AI, and then Jensen haung getting very nervous recently too. likely his palantir which we dont know the extent of thier AI must be faltering somewhere/not earning enoug profit, because Israels use of palantir is really just using us taxpayers money.
It’s like they suddenly realized that “data center leased to Oracle” but financed by them and owned by a no-name company with no assets and considerable liabilities is a bad idea.
I would be shocked to discover that that’s not exactly, literally, what happened.
BURN, BABY, BURN, DISCO AINFERNO!
Why do I feel like “explore private deals” really just means “inventing legal fictions” to permanently insulate themselves from risk?
Maybe they can bundle them up into investment vehicles and sell them to normal people, they can name them Regular Everyday Investment Trusts or something. Totally no way for that to fall apart.
After they sell them, they can bet against their own product, double dipping on their failing portfolios.
